Sydney, March 5, 2026, 04:08 AEDT — Premarket
- ASX 200 futures edged up heading into the open, recovering a bit after Wednesday’s 1.94% tumble.
- Oil and rate bets are front and center again, as the Middle East conflict combines with firmer GDP numbers to shift the focus.
- Traders are eyeing U.S. payrolls on March 6, with the RBA’s call slated for March 17 grabbing attention next.
Thursday’s open for Australian shares looked slightly firmer, with index futures stabilizing after a rough midweek slide. S&P/ASX 200 futures hovered at 8,928, putting them roughly 0.3% above the previous day’s cash finish. 1
The S&P/ASX 200 gave up 176.1 points, closing 1.94% lower at 8,901.2 on Wednesday, with losses hitting all 11 sectors. BHP slid 3.5%, Fortescue dropped 2.9%. Among uranium names, Paladin tumbled 8.4%. Silex Systems was hit even harder, down 9.1%. A few names bucked the trend — REA Group rose 1.6%, while Seek edged up 1.8%. 2
The drop caught investors off guard, forcing them to deal with heightened war risk and a sudden rethink on rates at the same time. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have ground to a halt, sending prices soaring over 10%. On top of that, firmer domestic growth has the market questioning just how aggressively the Reserve Bank of Australia will move after last month’s hike. “While stronger growth may seem like positive news,” Deloitte Access Economics partner Stephen Smith noted, it “will be a concern” for the RBA. “Cost-of-living pressures are still biting,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore added. 3
Australia’s GDP expanded 0.8% for the December quarter, up 2.6% year on year, according to figures released Wednesday. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported both public and private demand contributed 0.3 percentage points each to the headline number. GDP per capita posted its fourth consecutive quarterly increase. 4
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate target remains at 3.85%. The central bank is set to announce its next policy decision on March 17, releasing a statement at 2:30 p.m., with a press conference following at 3:30 p.m. The board will convene over two days, March 16 and 17—a stretch that tends to draw close scrutiny from banks and the property sector. 5
Offshore markets tracked moves in the U.S. labour space after ADP’s data showed private payrolls climbing by 63,000 in February. Traders are bracing for the official Employment Situation numbers, due out Friday, March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET—a release known for shaking bond yields and rippling through global stocks. 6
Airlines and travel stocks are still feeling the heat from the oil price surge. Qantas chief executive Vanessa Hudson described the carrier’s fuel hedging as “pretty good” — with derivatives locking in much of their needs — but said the size of the price jump can’t be ignored. Qantas reported 81% of fuel for the back half of its financial year is hedged. Shares ended Tuesday’s session off 1.8%. 7
Endeavour Group posted a half-year profit of A$247 million, a 17.1% drop, on revenue that came in at A$6.682 billion. The company announced a fully franked interim dividend of 10.8 Australian cents per share, including Australian tax credits. Shares go ex-dividend from March 12, so investors buying from that day miss out on the payout, which is scheduled for April 15. 8
Magellan Financial Group shares shot up 21.9% on Tuesday after the fund manager struck a deal to acquire the remaining stake in Barrenjoey Capital Partners, putting the transaction’s value at A$1.62 billion. “The combined entity has the depth and strength to develop as a genuine investment bank,” said Romano Sala Tenna, portfolio manager at Katana Asset Management. 9
London Stock Exchange Group has agreed to support an upgrade of ASX’s derivatives trading platform, a partnership drawing attention from brokers and high-frequency traders dependent on the infrastructure. 10
Even with a stronger open, this week’s tension lingers. Should the conflict spread or oil prices surge once more, pricier fuel and rising inflation expectations could pressure consumer shares and bring rate-sensitive stocks back under selling pressure.
Traders are eyeing oil and mining stocks at the open. After that, attention jumps to Friday’s U.S. payrolls data and the RBA’s March 17 decision statement—those are the next obvious catalysts.
