London, June 6, 2026, 16:02 BST
BAT’s London stock finished the week up 1.94% at 4,404 pence, getting a boost Friday even as the FTSE 100 edged higher just 0.07% to 10,368.05. The moves came as traders digested a new U.S. vape policy and British American Tobacco’s call to leave group guidance unchanged.
London markets were closed on Saturday, leaving Friday’s close as the latest reference point. BAT’s outlook hangs between quicker gains in newer nicotine products and softer forecasts for cigarettes.
BAT lifts revenue outlook for smoking alternatives, but sticks to guidance for group revenue and adjusted profit
Tuesday was rough for BAT. The company raised its revenue forecast for smoking alternatives like Vuse vapes and Velo nicotine pouches, but is keeping full-year group revenue and adjusted profit from operations at the bottom end of its medium-term guidance. BAT shares dropped, ending down 2.51% at 4,466 pence according to one market report.
BAT raised its outlook for New Categories, now seeing mid-teens revenue growth for both the first half and full year, according to its June 2 trading update. That’s better than its earlier low double-digit forecast for the group, which includes vapes, heated tobacco and oral nicotine pouches. CEO Tadeu Marroco said the full-year target remains “firmly on track” and called recent U.S. FDA guidance an “important step” for responsible products. BAT
BAT shares dropped 4% on Tuesday after the company chose not to lift group-wide targets, Reuters reported. CEO Tadeu Marroco told analysts the U.S. was a big opportunity, saying, “The size of the prize is very high.” Barclays analyst Pallav Mittal said some investors had looked for at least an upgrade to revenue, but BAT is being cautious due to uncertain fallout from Middle East tensions. Reuters
U.S. policy is driving the market right now. The FDA’s “enforcement discretion” policy lets some unauthorized e-nicotine and oral nicotine pouch products stay on shelves while their applications are pending, as long as certain conditions are met. But the agency said it will target products with youth-focused features, high nicotine levels, or other flagged safety issues. U.S. Food and Drug Administration
That brings BAT under the same U.S. regulatory trade as Philip Morris International and Altria, though the product mixes still differ. Philip Morris CEO Jacek Olczak said the FDA action is a “net positive” for Zyn and for the broader category, but the company cut its full-year profit outlook, blaming currency moves. Altria has entered the U.S. nicotine policy fight too, with its nicotine holdings and lobbying tied to the same possible rule change. Reuters
But the push from policymakers could get complicated. Six Democratic U.S. senators, including Dick Durbin and Elizabeth Warren, have sent public letters to Reynolds American, BAT’s U.S. arm, and Altria, raising questions about their lobbying and campaign donations linked to the FDA move. Reynolds did not reply to a Reuters request for comment. Altria called the guidance a key step toward addressing the illicit market with legal, regulated sales.
BAT warned on the global cigarette market, now seeing industry volumes down around 2.5% this year, steeper than its earlier call for a 2% drop. The company also posted declining value and volume share in its key cigarette markets. That puts even more weight on Vuse and Velo for BAT.
BAT faces a clear test this week—does Friday’s rebound stick when London trading resumes, or do investors keep pushing the stock down after it left group guidance unchanged? Turnover was light Friday, about 2.0 million shares traded versus the 50-day average of 4.4 million, so the move didn’t have much conviction behind it.
Policy follow-through out of Washington is the second test. The FDA says it plans to put out a public list of products it will deprioritize for enforcement. For BAT, that list—and any new political pushback tied to it—could matter more for now than sector talk of leaving cigarettes behind.
