BEIJING, March 6, 2026, 14:02 (CST)
China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), the government-backed iron ore buyer, has stepped up its restrictions on new seaborne shipments from BHP Group Ltd, broadening a contract standoff that’s dragged on for months and now hits some of BHP’s mainstays. The curbs extend to Mac fines, Newman fines, and Newman lumps—core iron ore grades for steelmakers. BHP declined to comment, while CMRG didn’t immediately respond to Reuters’ request. 1
This round of talks carries weight: the agreement at stake accounts for most of BHP’s northwest Australia production and supplies about 20% of China’s iron ore demand. The timing is notable, too—BHP’s latest numbers show copper edged past iron ore in first-half operating earnings, but iron ore still brought in $7.50 billion. 2
Canberra has its eyes glued to iron ore. The commodity tops Australia’s export charts, and Treasury figures show that every $10 swing in price shifts 2025-26 tax revenue by A$500 million. On March 4, Singapore’s benchmark ore was trading at $98.75 a ton. 3
CMRG, created in 2022 to coordinate iron ore purchases and secure improved pricing from miners, initially blocked domestic mills and traders from buying BHP’s Jimblebar fines back in September, then widened the restriction to include Jinbao in November. Traders speaking with Reuters report BHP cargo sales have dropped off sharply since last week. 1
Signs of strain are surfacing at Chinese ports. Jimblebar cargo stockpiles hit 9.8 million tons as of Feb. 26, shattering previous records and marking a 457% jump since late September. In January, BHP flagged that ongoing negotiations were cutting into the prices it was able to secure, forcing the miner to juggle its ore sales more carefully. 1
Last month, Chief Executive Mike Henry acknowledged the gap with CMRG has grown, calling it “a little bit wider than it’s been in the past.” Despite the drawn-out and unusually public dispute, he maintained BHP remains confident in reaching a deal. 3
Back in January, RBC’s Kaan Peker flagged that restrictions would probably squeeze near-term cargo supply, lending support to benchmark prices, though BHP might have to swallow steeper discounts. The month before, Peker noted CMRG’s move on BHP might “set a precedent” for talks with Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and Vale. 4
That’s part of why this goes further than just one yearly supply deal. On Feb. 17, BHP turned in first-half underlying profit of $6.20 billion—beating forecasts. Copper delivered $7.95 billion in operating earnings, nudging ahead of iron ore for the first time. 5
Still, Beijing’s tougher stance hasn’t translated into automatic bargaining power. A few Chinese steel producers told Reuters, off the record, that CMRG hadn’t managed to clinch improved pricing or conditions. “The fundamentals of demand and supply continue to define the price,” V2 Ventures founder Gautam Varma said. 2
BHP is moving its product along alternative routes, a sign that price and placement are bearing the brunt—output isn’t the main issue for now. Still, the dispute is shaping up as a template for competitors who could be next to grapple with similar tactics. 4
