MELBOURNE, April 7, 2026, 06:14 AEST
BHP Group Ltd slipped 2.53% to close at A$51.23 in Sydney on Monday, managing a smaller drop than both Rio Tinto and Fortescue as miners faced broad pressure and the materials index tumbled 2.77%. Volume came in at just 8.7 million shares, noticeably under the 30-day average. 1
Just two weeks ahead of BHP’s April 22 operational review, the company’s made its move. Brandon Craig is set to step in as chief executive on July 1, while energy markets remain unsettled—Brent surged 60% in March after the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. 2
BHP started the week sitting on a bigger cash pile. The company disclosed on April 2 that it had locked in US$4.3 billion from Wheaton Precious Metals, handing over rights to future silver output from Peru’s Antamina mine in return for the upfront payment—a classic silver streaming arrangement. 3
BHP posted a solid half-year in February—underlying profit climbed 22% for the six months to Dec. 31. Copper edged past iron ore as the top earner for the first time. CEO Mike Henry didn’t see a “burning need” for acquisitions. Andy Forster from Argo Investments called the dividend a surprise, saying it had “smashed everyone’s expectations from a dividend perspective”. 4
But iron ore remains the main source of jitters right now. Back in January, BHP agreed to take reduced prices on certain shipments, a move that came as it was working out 2026 supply deals with China Mineral Resources Group. RBC’s Kaan Peker pointed out that these buyer limits might squeeze spot supply, even though BHP is already taking on bigger discounts. 5
BHP has been under pressure, prompting the company to seek out alternative buyers. Back in January, Reuters noted that the miner sent Jimblebar fines to Malaysia and Vietnam—trades outside the norm—as inventories stacked up at Chinese ports and discounts on certain BHP cargoes deepened. 6
Fuel prices remain a big variable. Back in March, Henry noted that BHP was watching diesel markets carefully but hadn’t made any operational changes. Over at Fortescue, metals boss Dino Otranto pegged a 10-cent swing in diesel to a roughly US$500 million impact on the combined cost base of the four leading iron ore producers. 7
Whether that backdrop shifts remains up in the air. On Monday, Reuters said Pakistan floated a proposal for an immediate Iran-U.S. ceasefire—potentially clearing the way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—but Iran hasn’t signed on. OPEC+ is sticking to just a limited production boost, contingent on the waterway’s status. 8
The risk is clear. J.P. Morgan warns oil prices might break above US$150 a barrel should the disruptions drag on into mid-May. Over in Australia, the government tracks BHP’s iron ore market closely—each US$10 swing in prices changes its 2025-26 tax revenue by roughly A$500 million. 9
Craig’s message is clear: BHP isn’t looking to make big deals unless something “incredibly compelling” comes along. The focus shifts to building up copper, iron ore, potash, and coal from within. Forster described the incoming chief as “super impressive” and pointed to Craig’s background in iron ore and the Americas as reasons he’s seen as a strong choice. 10
