NEW YORK, March 31, 2026, 16:14 EDT
BHP Group’s U.S.-listed shares jumped 5.4% to $72.74 on Tuesday, with Rio Tinto up about 5%, after stronger-than-expected Chinese factory data lifted sentiment toward big miners. China’s official purchasing managers’ index, or PMI, a survey-based factory gauge, returned to expansion in March at the fastest pace in a year. 1
The move matters because BHP is less than a month from an April 22 operational review for the nine months to March 31, a scheduled production update that lands as investors look for a clearer read on demand across its iron ore and copper businesses. 2
At BHP’s February half-year results, copper contributed 51% of operating earnings for the first time and underlying attributable profit rose 22% to $6.2 billion. Even so, iron ore remains a core business for the group. 3
The March PMI rose to 50.4 from 49.0, above the 50 mark that signals expansion and ahead of a Reuters poll forecast of 50.1. “The outlook for Q2 is unclear,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, while Dan Wang at Eurasia Group warned the second half could weaken if the Iran crisis hurts major economies. 1
Pressure on BHP’s iron ore arm has not gone away. China widened restrictions on some BHP cargoes earlier this month during annual supply talks, and Reuters reported last week that a cargo of Jimblebar Fines was heading to India in a rare sale after discounts on material barred from sale in China. 4
But costs are another risk. Fortescue metals and operations chief Dino Otranto said last week that “every 10-cent movement” in diesel could shift costs for the top four miners by about $500 million, and Mike Henry said BHP was closely scrutinising diesel markets without changing operations. 5
Tuesday’s jump also tracked a broader rebound on Wall Street. U.S. stocks surged on bets the Middle East conflict could de-escalate, easing some pressure from oil and inflation that had knocked cyclical shares earlier in the month. 6
That leaves the relief looking tentative. Iron ore futures were still stuck in a tight range on Monday around $106 a ton as traders weighed firmer Chinese steel demand against high portside stocks and rising energy costs.
