NEW YORK, March 26, 2026, 17:29 EDT
- BHP’s U.S.-listed shares fell $1.51 to $68.50 late Thursday even as Chinese port inventories of its Jimblebar ore fell 6% week on week. 1
- Investors are weighing whether China’s brief delivery reprieve marks real easing in BHP’s contract fight or only a pause, with diesel costs also climbing across the sector. 2
BHP Group’s U.S.-listed shares fell $1.51 to $68.50 on Thursday, even as fresh trade data showed some of its iron ore was finally moving out of Chinese ports. Rio Tinto lost $1.77 to $85.79 and Vale slipped $0.18 to $14.95.
The mixed signal matters now. Investors are trying to judge whether BHP’s standoff with China’s state iron ore buyer is easing or merely pausing, just as the miner pays a 73 U.S. cent half-year dividend and faces a new fuel shock from the Middle East conflict. 3
Inventories of BHP’s Jimblebar fines, one of its iron ore products, at 15 major Chinese ports fell 6% week on week to 8.9 million metric tons as of March 24, the lowest since late January, after steel mills rushed to take delivery during a one-week reprieve, traders said. One trader said it was the steepest weekly drop since March 2025. 1
China Mineral Resources Group, or CMRG, granted that limited reprieve on March 13 and only to steelmakers, not traders. Earlier this month it had already widened restrictions on BHP cargoes, telling some traders to buy fewer seaborne shipments of Mac fines, Newman fines and Newman lumps as talks over BHP’s 2026 supply contract dragged on. 2
BHP has been looking for other buyers. A cargo of Jimblebar fines is heading to India in a rare sale, helped by discounts, and Lalit Ladkat, a senior analyst at CRU, said demand from JSW Steel was a key driver of India’s iron ore imports, which are set to hit a seven-year high in 2025-26. 4
The dispute still cuts into a core profit stream. BHP said in February that it had already seen a price hit from the Jimblebar ban; copper may have overtaken iron ore as the miner’s top earner in the December half, but iron ore still delivered $7.5 billion of operating earnings. 5
Management has kept the focus on relationships. Outgoing CEO Mike Henry said in February that talks with China were “tough”, while Brandon Craig, who takes over on July 1, said last week that building strong ties with governments and customers would be “really critical”. RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker wrote that the CEO handover looked “more evolutionary than transformational.” 5
Cost pressure is another problem. Fortescue metals chief Dino Otranto said on Monday that every 10-cent move in diesel prices adds about $500 million to the cost base of the top four miners, underlining how fast margins can tighten when fuel jumps. 6
But the inventory drawdown does not settle the broader risk. Jimblebar stocks at those ports were still 406% above late-September levels, and the March reprieve was temporary. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent warned on Thursday that a prolonged Middle East war could do more economic damage and keep inflation pressure alive through energy prices. 1
In Sydney, BHP shares ended Thursday up 0.22% at A$50.23, a far quieter move than the one seen later in New York. 7
