NEW YORK, March 24, 2026, 17:06 EDT.
BHP Group shares trading in the U.S. added 56 cents, finishing Tuesday at $68.77. Traders pointed to firmer demand in India, which may offer BHP an escape for iron ore supplies tied up by a pricing standoff with China. According to Reuters, Indian iron ore imports are on track for a seven-year peak, and a shipment of BHP’s Jimblebar fines—an unusual move—is reportedly en route to India.
This shift is significant: China Mineral Resources Group—the state-backed firm handling BHP’s 2026 supply talks—has steadily clamped down on buying various BHP iron ore grades, only rolling back one restriction for a short stint earlier this month. India doesn’t fill China’s shoes, but if it steps in to take restricted shipments, BHP might feel less pressure to offload volumes at discounted rates.
India is on track to import between 12 million and 14 million metric tons of iron ore this fiscal year, analysts and trade sources told Reuters. That’s more than double last year’s total. JSW Steel has been the main force behind the surge in demand, according to Lalit Ladkat, a senior analyst at CRU. Brazil and Oman continued to supply roughly 70% of incoming shipments.
BHP has a stake here. Back in February, copper edged past iron ore as the group’s top earner for the first time when half-year results landed, but iron ore still pulled in $7.5 billion in operating earnings over the six months to Dec. 31.
Copper still stands out as the sector’s clear growth driver. On Tuesday, Rio Tinto said it’s targeting first copper from Arizona’s Resolution project sometime in the early to mid-2030s. “As quickly as we can,” copper chief Katie Jackson told reporters, underscoring the company’s push to get the metal to market. BHP holds a 45% stake in Resolution; Rio owns the remaining 55%. Reuters
Shares of Rio Tinto traded up close to 1% in the U.S., with Freeport-McMoRan moving almost 3% higher. Freeport CEO Kathleen Quirk described copper demand drivers as “more secular in nature,” pointing out that the Iran conflict hasn’t changed the fundamental story. Reuters
BHP’s next chief, Brandon Craig, plans to stick with organic expansion in copper, iron ore, potash, and coal. Any deal, he says, would have to be “incredibly compelling” to get his nod. Craig also flagged the importance of strong customer relationships—especially with China—as he steps into the CEO role on July 1. Reuters
The trade doesn’t always hold. Just last week, Reuters flagged that much of China’s robust iron ore imports are simply piling up at ports instead of feeding steel mills. Fortescue’s Dino Otranto, speaking Monday, put it bluntly: every 10-cent move in diesel hits his company with a $70 million bill, and for the largest iron ore producers, that translates to about $500 million in additional costs.
BHP’s interim dividend lands on March 26, giving shareholders a cash payout to mark their calendars. Beyond that, attention shifts: will India step up again to take in restricted ore, or does China move to clamp down ahead of any supply deal?
