New York, Feb 13, 2026, 13:05 (EST) — Regular session
- Bitcoin clawed back roughly 5% in U.S. afternoon trading, bouncing after slipping under $66,000 earlier.
- Rate-cut bets climbed after a softer U.S. inflation reading, taking some heat off risk assets.
- Spot bitcoin ETFs saw another round of significant outflows on Thursday.
Bitcoin climbed Friday, edging back near $69,000 after a volatile stretch for risk assets. The cryptocurrency added 5.1% to $68,926, having swung between $65,148 and $69,295. Ether also moved higher, rising 7.3% to $2,053.
The shift came after U.S. consumer price data landed a bit lighter than forecast: January CPI up 0.2%, marking a 2.4% rise over the past year. Core CPI, which omits food and energy, moved 0.3% higher. “The inflation report is better than expected … This is good news for the Fed,” said Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes, New York. 1
Fed funds futures contracts—used by traders to bet on policy direction—now peg the likelihood of a June rate cut near 70%. After the latest data, markets moved to price in about 64 basis points of easing for 2026, compared to 58 earlier. (Each basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.) Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, put it this way: “With inflation under control, attention is shifting back to labor market conditions.” 2
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs—those funds tied directly to bitcoin, trading just like stocks—recorded another stretch of outflows, with $410 million pulled on Feb. 12. That followed $276 million exiting the previous day, according to Farside Investors. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone saw roughly $158 million withdrawn on Thursday. 3
Crypto-related stocks stayed in the spotlight after Coinbase unexpectedly posted a quarterly loss on Thursday, with trading activity losing steam amid a wider digital-asset downturn. In a shareholder letter, the exchange put it bluntly: “Crypto is cyclical, and experience tells us it’s never as good, or as bad as it seems.” Over at Zacks Investment Research, stock strategist David Bartosiak pointed to Coinbase’s diversification and what he called “shock absorbers” — like revenue from stablecoins — as potential buffers for results. Still, Reuters highlighted that bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its Oct. 6 high, and U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs faced billions in outflows over November, December and January. 4
Even so, a few strategists aren’t convinced. Bitcoin’s still a momentum play, they say. Geoff Kendrick, who heads digital assets research at Standard Chartered, has lowered his 2026 price target for bitcoin—$100,000 now, down from $150,000. There’s more: Kendrick told Barron’s the token could drop to $50,000 before long. 5
Still, a softer CPI doesn’t put the policy debate to rest—especially if tariff-driven costs show up again before year-end. Economists caution that some Trump-era tariffs are still feeding through, and inflation often spikes early each year. That “January effect” can shake up rate forecasts. 6
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index lands Feb. 20—it’s the Fed’s go-to inflation barometer. Also coming: fresh daily ETF flow figures, which tend to shake up short-term trades. The Federal Reserve’s next policy decision hits March 17-18. 7
