New York, Feb 13, 2026, 12:53 EST — Regular session
- Gold bounced back following a steep drop the previous day, as traders adjusted rate-cut bets on the back of new inflation data.
- After January CPI came in lighter than expected, traders shifted attention back to U.S. yields and the dollar.
- The Fed minutes are on deck, along with the central bank’s go-to PCE inflation gauge.
Gold pushed up over 1% Friday, recovering from the previous day’s drop as weaker U.S. inflation numbers rekindled expectations for a Fed rate cut this year. Spot gold climbed 1.4% to $4,987.59 an ounce at 11:04 a.m. ET. April U.S. gold futures gained 1.3%, trading at $5,010.80. “Gold, and particularly silver, is enjoying a relief rally,” said independent metals trader Tai Wong. 1
The bounce carries weight at this point since gold has lately behaved more like a rate-sensitive asset. When investors anticipate looser policy, real yields often slip, making bullion comparatively cheaper to hold. The rebound on Friday, coming after Thursday’s decline, looked more like short covering than a decisive push to fresh highs.
January’s Consumer Price Index edged up 0.2%, missing the 0.3% consensus, with annual inflation at 2.4%—just shy of forecasts, according to Reuters. The 10-year Treasury yield eased, dropping 2.9 basis points to 4.075%. The dollar index hovered, holding close to 96.932. “The inflation report is better than expected,” said Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes. 2
Banks haven’t given up on gold’s rally just yet. ANZ bumped its Q2 gold target up to $5,800 an ounce, arguing that the pullback is a buying window. The bank did warn, though, that silver’s recent surge might not last if industrial demand slows at these elevated levels. 3
Physical gold prices turned volatile. In India, the metal slipped into a discount—breaking a nearly month-long run—as local buyers pulled away, Reuters said. Over in China, appetite for gold held steady with the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday kicking off Feb. 15. 4
Shares tied to gold have seesawed lately, tracking bullion’s volatility. Newmont dropped 5.2% to $118.12 on Thursday, a steeper loss than Royal Gold, which eased 4.37%, according to MarketWatch data. 5
The road ahead looks bumpy. Should inflation data start picking up again, or if the Fed doubles down on its “higher for longer” stance, yields may push higher and put pressure on bullion. That risk looms larger with prices hovering close to those big, round-number highs—always a magnet for traders looking to lock in gains.
Next week, traders brace for the Fed’s meeting minutes and more U.S. data—digging for any hint on the timing of rate cuts. Markets look set to react quickly if officials sound less convinced about disinflation than the CPI figures from Friday. 6
Feb. 20 brings the next key release: the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index. That’s the inflation metric the Fed tends to favor. 7
