London, Feb 26, 2026, 07:55 GMT — Premarket
- BP ended the session at 470.25 pence, slipping 0.2% just before London opens on Thursday.
- Brent steadied near $71, with U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and the March 1 OPEC+ gathering on traders’ radar.
- Oil struggled to gain ground, with a surge in U.S. crude inventories capping the rally.
BP (BP.L) finished Wednesday at 470.25 pence, dipping 0.2% on the day and marking a roughly 3% slide from its February 19 peak. Over in the U.S., BP’s shares edged 0.6% higher after hours, last trading at $38.09.
Brent crude nudged 0.3% higher to $71.06 a barrel by 0720 GMT on Thursday, as the market kept a close eye on U.S.-Iran discussions that could swing supply risks either way. “Investors are focusing on whether military conflict will be averted in the U.S.-Iran negotiations,” noted Toshitaka Tazawa, analyst at Fujitomi Securities. ING analysts flagged the potential for a deal to peel back a roughly $10-a-barrel “risk premium” tied to fears of supply disruption. Reuters
BP’s exposure to oil price moves has grown since it overhauled its cash return strategy. On Feb. 10, the company halted its quarterly share buyback, redirecting surplus cash toward reducing net debt. This came alongside roughly $4 billion in charges tied to renewables and biogas assets.
Eyes now on OPEC+, with eight members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE among them—set to gather March 1. Sources say they’ll weigh boosting April production by 137,000 barrels per day, but leaving levels unchanged remains a possibility.
BP shares? It’s mostly a one-two punch: first, watch oil headlines; second, watch oil prices. After that, the rest trails behind. The company’s cash flow is tightly linked to where crude trades, both in output and the trading side, so the stock follows suit.
There’s risk whichever way things go. Should diplomatic efforts ease tensions and OPEC+ boosts supply into a market already weighed down by growing stockpiles, crude prices might slide, dulling the sector’s appeal. But if negotiations break down, oil prices can spike—though that kind of volatility often reignites concerns about demand and brings back political headaches just as fast.
BP faces its own overhang that isn’t going away just because Brent prices swing: the lingering uncertainty over how fast it can pull net debt into the target range, which plays straight into the timing on buybacks. That keeps the stock in a tricky spot—lagging behind peers on oil’s down days, but rarely taking the front line even when crude jumps.
Negotiators pick up indirect talks again in Geneva on Thursday, this time with Omani mediation. Markets are on alert for sudden headlines. After that, eyes turn to March 1, when OPEC+ will settle on whether to lift, hold, or unexpectedly tweak April output.
