LONDON, June 24, 2026, 12:17 BST
BP dropped 1.7% to 489.85 pence late Wednesday morning. Brent crude slid about 1.6% to around $75.88 a barrel. BP’s market cap was close to £75.7 billion.
BP finished at 606.30 pence on March 31, with the May Brent contract settling at $118.35 that day. Based on Wednesday’s numbers, BP has fallen 19.2% since then, while crude is down 35.9%. The ratio of BP’s share price in pence to Brent in dollars is up 26%, the data show. That’s a rough measure of sensitivity, not an actual valuation metric.
BP shares have dropped roughly £18 billion in market value since March 31 on the current share count. The stock hasn’t fallen as much as some feared, so investors are still holding onto some of the wartime rerating given to earnings away from oil and the management strategy changes. If crude trading and refining return to normal, it will get tougher to justify that premium.
Physical oil prices dropped quicker. Cash Dubai, which was above $60 a barrel in March, is now at a 27-cent discount as of Tuesday. North Sea Forties on Monday traded $1 under dated Brent, after hitting a $21.50 premium in April. Contango is back in Dubai, with prompt cargoes under forward prices. June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said Asian refiners are “well supplied for the next two months.” Reuters
BP’s first-quarter numbers help explain some of the gap. Adjusted net income—BP calls it underlying replacement cost profit—jumped more than twofold to $3.2 billion, ahead of its own analyst consensus by 20%. Oil trading had its best run since 2022. Net debt climbed to $25.3 billion.
BP has less room than Shell and Exxon Mobil to keep shareholder payouts, as it stopped its $750 million quarterly buybacks in February. The company set a net-debt target of $14 billion-$18 billion for 2027. Shell and Exxon held onto their buyback plans. BP finance chief Kate Thomson said the company could look at buybacks again after hitting its debt target, but said a restart would not be automatic.
BP will shift to two core segments, upstream and downstream, starting July 1. CEO Meg O’Neill said this move is meant to “reduce complexity and strengthen execution.” The stock’s oil-relative premium means BP has to deliver more, since its cushion from crude prices has narrowed. bp global
But the gap might close from either direction. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said traders are pricing in “Iranian oil re-entering the global market.” Macquarie expects Brent to average $64 in 2027. That could mean more pressure on debt reduction if trading profit drops. If a ceasefire fails, crude could jump again. Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, warned markets may be putting “too much confidence to a favorable outcome.” Reuters
BP will report Q2 earnings on August 4. Investors are watching if BP’s oil trading held some of last quarter’s gain and if net debt dropped from $25.3 billion.
