London, June 20, 2026, 22:01 BST
- BT finished Friday at 195.70 pence, ticking up 0.2% for the session. Shares still dropped 6.6% this week. The FTSE 100 slipped 1.0%.
- BT published a fresh in-house consensus, leaving fiscal 2027 forecasts mostly steady at revenue of £19.21 billion and normalised free cash flow at £2.00 billion.
- BT doesn’t have any releases on the calendar next week. The company is set to hold its annual meeting July 9. First-quarter numbers are coming July 23.
BT Group shares finished flat Friday but wrapped up the week down 6.6%, lagging the UK’s blue-chip index as some investors reconsidered the company’s cash prospects. The stock settled at 195.70 pence, roughly 19% short of its 52-week peak at 242.09 pence.
The drop didn’t come after a new profit warning. BT’s June 19 analyst estimates, which aren’t official guidance, were much the same as the last survey on June 11. So, the fall looks tied to a lower valuation on an unchanged earnings outlook rather than any downgrade in forecasts.
Analysts are now looking for BT to post fiscal 2027 revenue of £19.206 billion, EBITDA of £8.254 billion and normalised free cash flow at £2.000 billion. Those figures are down a touch from earlier consensus, which called for £19.212 billion in revenue, £8.255 billion EBITDA and free cash flow of £1.997 billion. EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, and normalised free cash flow is BT’s own adjusted figure for cash after investment and regular financing costs.
BT’s pitch to investors is shifting. Growth isn’t the main story. Now it’s about squeezing more cash from lower network costs. Capital expenditure is set to drop to roughly £4.3 billion this year after sitting at £5.11 billion for fiscal 2026. BT sees normalised free cash flow reaching about £2 billion, then moving towards £3 billion by the decade’s end.
BT is counting on lower capex now that the big spend on fibre is mostly done, said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, following the latest annual numbers. With less cash going out, BT should be able to cut debt and boost dividends—as long as it can keep revenue and customer figures stable.
BT posted adjusted revenue of £19.65 billion for fiscal 2026, off 4%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at £8.23 billion, about flat. Openreach picked up 2.2 million fibre-to-the-premises connections, but dropped 825,000 broadband lines. “We have delivered on our financial guidance and we are transforming ahead of plan,” Chief Executive Allison Kirkby said.
Kirkby had 544,636 shares vest under a restricted-share plan, according to a regulatory filing Thursday. She sold 256,492 shares at £2 apiece, mostly to cover taxes linked to the award, the filing said.
BT wasn’t the only one under pressure. Vodafone dropped roughly 7.6% for the week, closing at 107 pence. The stock fell as investors considered the risks from the bigger VodafoneThree mobile venture and reports of interest in TalkTalk’s consumer arm. Buying TalkTalk would boost Vodafone’s fixed-line exposure, adding to competition from the likes of Virgin Media O2 and smaller fibre outfits.
BT has no trading statement due next week, so the shares could react more to moves in bond yields, geopolitics, and swings in the broader London market. The Bank of England kept its base rate at 3.75% on Thursday, as two members pushed for a hike — meaning debt-heavy companies may keep facing tighter borrowing conditions.
The recovery story faces some real issues. Analysts still see 2.2% revenue decline this year, Openreach broadband losses hitting about 785,000, and net debt stuck near £19.7 billion. Missing cash flow, weak progress on line losses, or harsher price pressure could stall the re-rating. Analyst targets are all over—from 143p to 330p—leaving little clarity on where shares go from here.
BT shares aren’t getting a lift just because fibre spending has peaked. At Friday’s price, the market is looking for proof that lower capex turns up in cash flow, and it wants to see that happen without the core business faltering faster. The next tests come at the July 9 annual meeting and with first-quarter numbers out July 23.
