NEW YORK, Feb 22, 2026, 14:39 EST — Market closed
- Caterpillar closed down 0.1% on Friday, ending at $759.74.
- A U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump’s tariffs has been followed by fresh levies, keeping trade risk in play.
- Investors this week will track tariff mechanics, inflation and growth data, and major market catalysts including Trump’s Feb. 24 speech.
Caterpillar (CAT.N) shares closed down 0.1% at $759.74 on Friday. U.S. equity markets are shut on Sunday and reopen on Monday. (Reuters)
The stock heads into the new week with Washington’s tariff machinery moving again. The Supreme Court struck down a large swath of Trump’s tariffs, and he responded within hours with a new universal levy that was later raised to 15%, the maximum allowed under the law, Reuters reported. “The uncertainty … gives him enormous additional leverage beyond the actual tariffs,” said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade official now at the Asia Society Policy Institute. (Reuters)
That matters for Caterpillar because it sits in the cross-currents: global supply chains, big-ticket equipment demand, and the interest-rate outlook that drives construction and mining cycles. On Friday, the S&P 500 ended up 0.69% while investors digested the tariff ruling alongside softer growth and hotter inflation signals; economists at the Penn-Wharton Budget Model warned more than $175 billion in tariff collections could be at risk of refund claims. (Reuters)
The growth side of the story cooled. S&P Global’s flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) — a survey-based read of business conditions — showed U.S. activity expanding at the slowest pace in 10 months in February, with factory orders fading and hiring close to stalling. (Reuters)
Inflation did not cooperate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge — ran hotter in December, and economists estimate core PCE (excluding food and energy) could rise as much as 0.4% month-on-month in January, which would put it at 3.1% year-on-year. “That said, this tends to be a very volatile category,” said Pooja Sriram, an economist at Barclays. (Reuters)
For markets, the tariff ruling didn’t close the book so much as change chapters. “It will increase this legendary uncertainty that markets, of course, always fear,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, in Reuters’ market reaction report on Friday. (Reuters)
Caterpillar’s stock has increasingly traded as a macro proxy: rates, growth and trade. When those signals conflict, the tape can go quiet fast.
Peers face the same weather. Deere, Terex and Komatsu tend to move with the same mix of construction spending, commodity-linked mining demand, and policy noise around trade and infrastructure.
But the downside risk is straightforward. If the new tariffs broaden, or if the legal fight over refunds turns messy and drags on business planning, industrial order books can soften. A sharper slowdown in U.S. activity would hit the sector at the same time higher-for-longer rates keep financing tight for end customers.
This week’s calendar is crowded even without Caterpillar-specific events. Investors will parse President Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday (Feb. 24) and Nvidia’s results on Wednesday (Feb. 25) for what they imply about risk appetite after a tariff-driven rally in broader indexes. (Reuters)
They will also watch Thursday’s U.S. durable goods report (Feb. 26) for a read on big-ticket orders tied to the industrial economy. Durable goods data track new orders for long-lasting manufactured items — a pulse check that can move machinery names on a slow day. (Morningstar)
For Caterpillar, the next clear catalyst is not a product launch. It’s whether tariff rules, exemptions and refund mechanics get clarified after Feb. 24 — and whether Feb. 26’s durable-goods numbers hint at momentum, or a stall.
