New York, Feb 22, 2026, 13:55 EST — The market has shut for the day.
- Shopify shares finished Friday up. Looking ahead to Monday, policy moves and macro headlines could steer the action.
- The company’s buyback plan is still in focus, along with rule changes for partners and the API that are coming up.
- Big tech earnings could set the tone for the week, with interest-rate bets also in focus.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) finished Friday up 1.9% at $126.20, shaking off some sizable intraday moves before U.S. markets powered down for the weekend. 1
Risk appetite picked up toward the end of the week following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs, which had been enacted using emergency powers. The ruling sent stocks higher, but traders were left to puzzle over the next chapter for trade policy. 2
Shopify has been sensitive to macro chatter, moving sharply whenever growth stocks or AI-linked names fall in or out of favor. The shares have acted like a high-beta software play this year — fast to react as investors rotate in or out.
Shopify’s board cleared the way for up to $2.0 billion in buybacks of its Class A subordinate voting shares, according to a Feb. 11 regulatory filing. The buyback plan, effective from Feb. 17, sets a 5% limit relative to all outstanding Class A shares. There’s no expiration date; repurchases can happen through open-market activity, block deals, or other channels permitted under U.S. and Canadian regulations. 3
Shopify posted $11.56 billion in revenue and $378.44 billion in GMV for 2025, according to its fourth-quarter and full-year results. Free cash flow came in at $2.01 billion—calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenses. For the first quarter, the company is targeting revenue growth in the low-thirties percent and sees its free cash flow margin landing in the low-to-mid teens. CFO Jeff Hoffmeister described the buyback as being launched “from a position of financial and operating strength.” 4
Shopify is pitching the AI conversation as a potential win, not something to fear. The company says more shoppers are tapping into its AI-powered tools, and orders placed via AI search have surged since early 2025. It’s also pointing to a collaboration with OpenAI’s ChatGPT that lets users make purchases directly. “The AI era has now reached commerce,” President Harley Finkelstein said. Still, D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria cautioned that “indiscriminate selling of software stocks” can outweigh individual stories. 5
Investors have something new to track off the P&L: Shopify’s about to roll out changes to its Partner Program Agreement and API License and Terms of Use on Feb. 27. The update broadens the definition of “agentic commerce”—that is, shopping powered by automated software agents—and imposes stricter guardrails on merchant and customer data. Explicit written consent will now be required before any merchant or customer data, even if it’s aggregated or derived, can be used for developing or training AI or machine-learning systems. There are also fresh rules around billing transparency and how payment apps wind down. 6
Shopify is prepping a new feature for its merchants, announcing in its developer forum that “pre-launch pages” are set to arrive in the next few weeks. The idea: a static “coming soon” landing page that merchants can use as an interactive placeholder while their full store is still under construction. 7
Shopify shares rallied Friday, mirroring gains across e-commerce stocks after the tariff decision. Investors cited less immediate trade disruption as a driver. Etsy popped close to 6%, eBay advanced 3.7%, and Wayfair tacked on about 2% during the session, Investors.com reported. 8
The macro calendar next week looms large, threatening to overshadow stock-specific moves. All eyes shift to Nvidia’s quarterly numbers Wednesday—an event many see as a key readout for an AI-driven market. Tech and software earnings are queued up as well, coming into a tape that’s already roughed up parts of software on concerns over disruption. 9
Rates are the other big variable. On Feb. 18, the Federal Reserve posted minutes from its Jan. 27–28 meeting, leaving traders to sift through data and Fed commentary for any hints on the possible pace of policy easing — fast or slow. 10
Still, this setup could fall apart fast. A new wave of tariff jitters, or a sharp selloff in software sparked by AI disruption worries, could drag Shopify down with the sector, execution aside. Then there’s Shopify’s Feb. 27 partner and API overhaul—if developers push back or the crackdown rattles the app ecosystem, reputational and broader platform risks come into play.
Markets are back in action Monday, Feb. 23. Shopify followers are eyeing Feb. 27—that’s when those partner and API terms updates kick in. But it’s Nvidia’s midweek results, and whatever trade policy twists emerge, that should set the mood for risk this week.
