New York, Feb 26, 2026, 10:59 EST — Regular session
- Circle Internet Group shares rose about 7% to $89.01, after closing at $83.15 on Wednesday. (Google)
- USDC ended 2025 at $75.3 billion in circulation; Circle posted $770 million in Q4 revenue and reserve income. (SEC)
- Investors are zeroing in on 2026 margin and expense guidance, plus progress on Circle’s Arc blockchain and payments push. (SEC)
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) shares rose about 7% to $89.01 in late morning trade on Thursday, extending a sharp two-day rally for the stablecoin issuer. The stock hit $90.00 earlier in the session. (Google)
The move matters now because stablecoins — crypto tokens designed to hold a steady value, typically $1 — are drawing fresh attention as U.S. rules firm up and as traders look for “cash-like” rails inside crypto markets. Circle’s USDC is pegged to the dollar and backed by reserves of cash and other low-risk assets, a structure that has put its growth back in the spotlight. (Reuters)
Regulation is part of the pitch. Reuters reported that USDC adoption has been helped by the GENIUS Act, which set a federal framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins, while Circle’s income remains sensitive to Federal Reserve policy because the company invests reserves in deposits and short-dated U.S. Treasuries. (Reuters)
Seaport Research Partners analyst Jeff Cantwell said USDC is “scaling rapidly,” and flagged improving profitability as the token expands. Circle Chief Executive Jeremy Allaire has said falling rates can be “welcome” if they lift money velocity and support circulation growth even as yields ease. (Reuters)
In the quarter ended Dec. 31, Circle said USDC in circulation rose 72% to $75.3 billion, while total revenue and reserve income rose 77% to $770 million. Net income from continuing operations was $133 million and adjusted EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted for certain items — was $167 million. (SEC)
The core engine is still reserve income. Circle reported reserve income of $733 million, but said the reserve return rate slipped to 3.8%, down 68 basis points (0.68 percentage point). Distribution, transaction and other costs rose to $461 million, leaving a revenue-less-distribution-cost (RLDC) margin of 40% — a measure of revenue after paying distribution and transaction costs. (SEC)
Circle is also trying to make “other revenue” matter. Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Fox-Geen said “other revenue” was $36.8 million in the quarter, including about $25 million from subscription and services and $12 million from transactions. (Investing)
Management’s 2026 guide is what traders are chewing on next. Circle reiterated a multi-year target for USDC to grow about 40% a year “through cycle,” and forecast 2026 other revenue of $150 million to $170 million, an RLDC margin of 38% to 40%, and adjusted operating expenses of $570 million to $585 million. (SEC)
On the business side, Circle pointed to new hooks into payments and finance. Visa said U.S. issuers and acquirers can settle with Visa in USDC, and Intuit struck a multi-year partnership to integrate USDC and related infrastructure across its platform; Circle also cited work with Polymarket and Bermuda’s plan for an onchain economy. (SEC)
Circle also leaned into infrastructure. It said Arc’s public testnet has more than 100 participants, and that Arc is still on track for a mainnet launch this year; Circle Payments Network had 55 financial institutions enrolled and 74 in eligibility review as of Feb. 20, the company said. (SEC)
On the regulatory front, Circle said it received conditional approval in December from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank. “The fourth quarter marked another step forward in Circle’s mission,” Allaire said in the company’s release. (SEC)
Still, the quarter’s headline profit did not carry cleanly into the year. Circle posted a full-year net loss from continuing operations of $70 million, which it said was significantly impacted by $424 million of stock-based compensation tied to IPO vesting conditions, even as full-year adjusted EBITDA rose to $582 million. (SEC)
Wall Street is also moving numbers around. Needham analyst John Todaro maintained a buy rating on Thursday but cut his price target to $130 from $190; Canaccord Genuity cut its target to $160 from $247 while keeping a buy rating, according to a separate report. (GuruFocus)
But the model has soft spots. Circle warned that periods of lost trust or “systemic shocks” could trigger rapid redemption requests or delays, and it flagged risks from rising competition, interest-rate swings, and execution around Arc — including the possibility Arc “may not be successful.” (Business Wire)
For now, the next test is whether USDC circulation holds up as rate expectations shift, and whether Circle can stay inside its 38%-40% 2026 RLDC margin range while scaling payments and blockchain infrastructure. TradingView’s earnings calendar flags Circle’s next report for June 3. (Tradingview)
