NEW YORK, March 10, 2026, 13:01 (EDT)
Citigroup is projecting mid-teens percentage gains in first-quarter investment banking fees and markets revenue, the bank said Tuesday. CEO Jane Fraser pointed to steady client activity, even with renewed geopolitical tensions. Citi shares climbed roughly 3% around midday, outpacing modest moves from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. 1
The stakes are high for Fraser, who’s under pressure to prove Citi’s protracted revamp can actually deliver a 10%-11% return on tangible common equity this year. Last quarter, that key profitability metric—essentially profit versus shareholder capital minus intangibles—clocked in at 7.7% on an adjusted basis. Citi’s next report lands April 14, just ahead of its investor day on May 7. 2
The outlook matches up with JPMorgan’s projections from last month, when the bank called for first-quarter investment banking fees to climb by the mid- to high-teens, with markets revenue also growing by the mid-teens. That points to stronger-than-expected deal flow at the big banks, resisting the pressure from the tech-related selloff and choppy trading. Citi shares still lag larger peers, but that discount narrowed over the past year. 3
Speaking at the RBC Capital Markets conference, Fraser said, “Large cap M&A is not missing a beat right now.” She pointed to mergers and share sales fueling fee growth, with markets revenue also getting a boost from equities and fixed income. 4
Fraser reaffirmed Citi’s full-year target, saying, “I feel good about that,” in reference to the 10%-11% goal. The bank plans to take most of its severance and related charges early, loading those into the first quarter, while shooting for an operating-efficiency ratio around 60% this year. “Short-term pain for long-term gain,” she said. 4
The backdrop for that optimism: Citi in January topped Wall Street forecasts, posting a 35% jump in fourth-quarter investment banking fees to $1.29 billion and banking revenue surging 78% to $2.2 billion. “The turnaround story for Citi continues,” David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, said at the time, adding the bank might finally be shaking off its laggard label. 2
Still, the dangers haven’t faded. Fraser pointed out that if oil prices hang above $100 and the Middle East crisis grinds on, inflation could get another push and global growth might slip. Pockets of private credit — that’s lending outside traditional banks — pose their own hazards for shaky underwriters. The market isn’t posing a systemic threat, according to Fraser, yet she flagged a messy mix: Middle East tensions, toppy AI stocks, and private-credit issues together would be “more problematic.” 4
Citi’s layoffs haven’t let up. Back in January, Reuters flagged that the bank was lining up another round for March, following roughly 1,000 cuts already made earlier this year, all as Fraser pushes to trim headcount, tackle regulatory issues, and improve returns. On Tuesday, she noted severance expenses will likely come in a bit below last year’s figures, even though more of those charges are getting booked in the first quarter. 5
There could be some relief from Washington. According to Reuters on Tuesday, U.S. regulators are putting together a fresh draft of the Basel capital rules—the framework dictating how much capital banks have to keep on hand—plus adjustments to the surcharge imposed on the biggest lenders. Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, described the anticipated proposal as “quite friendly to banks.” Douglas Elliott, a partner at Oliver Wyman, estimated that capital requirements for the largest U.S. banks might eventually drop by up to 10%, subject to the final terms. 6
Citi faces a more immediate check-in on April 14. Investors want to see if improved trading and more stable advisory business actually translate into higher returns, not just more revenue—and whether recent cost cuts still let the bank push growth. 7
