New York, Feb 14, 2026, 10:24 (EST) — The market is closed.
- Coinbase shares snapped back sharply into the weekend following results.
- With trading activity slowing, stablecoin-related revenue is shouldering a bigger share of the load.
- Traders are once again watching Washington as calls for a crypto rulebook return to the spotlight.
Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN.O) surged 16.5% Friday, changing hands at $164.32 late in the session despite a rough stretch for crypto stocks and a surprise quarterly loss from the exchange. Bitcoin clawed back 2.3%, hovering around $69,763. Ether added 3.5%, reaching $2,087.29.
Coinbase’s fate is still tied to market action. If crypto prices slump and volatility disappears, retail trading typically vanishes just as fast—taking a big chunk of the company’s main revenue with it.
Policy comes back into focus here. On Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressed Congress to approve the Clarity Act this spring, pitching it as a move to reassure markets after digital assets took a hit. (Reuters)
Coinbase swung to a $666.7 million loss, or $2.49 a share, in the fourth quarter after transaction revenue dropped to $982.7 million. Consumer transaction revenue was hit especially hard, down over 45%. On the other hand, subscription and services revenue climbed 13.5% to $727.4 million, helped by stablecoin-related income jumping to $364.1 million. Stablecoins—as tokens tied to the U.S. dollar or other steady benchmarks—played a big role. “It’s all about the company’s diversification and ‘shock absorbers’,” said David Bartosiak, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research. (Reuters)
Coinbase stuck to its familiar script. CEO Brian Armstrong claimed, “The Everything Exchange is working,” citing roughly 1 million Coinbase One subscriptions along with a bump in USDC held on the platform. CFO Alesia Haas, for her part, highlighted that the company has been “delivering or outperforming” guidance “every quarter,” which she said adds to its “multi-year track record of profitability.” (Coinbase Investor Relations)
Coinbase wrapped up 2025 holding $11.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, according to its shareholder letter. The company bought back $1.7 billion of its Class A common stock in Q4 and into Feb. 10. By that same date, transaction revenue had already reached about $420 million in the first quarter. Still, Coinbase warned investors not to read too much into that early number. The company projected first-quarter subscription and services revenue in the $550 million to $630 million range. The board also upped its repurchase authorization by $2.0 billion this January.
Monness, Crespi, Hardt’s Gus Gala isn’t buying the optimism. The analyst knocked Coinbase down to a “tactical Sell” on Thursday, arguing that bets on a smooth 2026 rebound are “foolish and facile” given how long crypto bear cycles usually drag on. Price target holds at $120, and Gala sees consensus forecasts as still too optimistic. (Investing)
Macro factors aren’t doing much to shore up trader confidence. Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered flagged fresh downside risk this week, cautioning that “further price capitulation” could drive bitcoin all the way to $50,000, with ether possibly tumbling to $1,400 before any bounce. If that scenario plays out, trading volumes across the sector probably stay under pressure. (Investing)
Still, Friday’s uptick doesn’t solve the core issue. Coinbase’s transaction revenue is tied to crypto price moves, leaving it vulnerable if low volatility drags on—even if token prices hold steady. The Clarity Act fight adds a layer of uncertainty: a deal that limits stablecoin “rewards” would hit a revenue stream that’s grown more crucial for the company.
U.S. equity markets are closed Monday for Washington’s Birthday; trading won’t pick back up until Tuesday. For Coinbase, the focus turns to bitcoin—does it stick near current levels through the long weekend? There’s also fresh attention on the Clarity Act in Washington after Bessent’s latest push. (New York Stock Exchange)
