New York, Feb 12, 2026, 14:04 EST — Regular session
- Coinbase shares dip as investors brace for quarterly results set to drop after the market closes
- Analysts warn that the crypto downturn may drag down trading fees and hurt future guidance
- Investors are closely tracking volume forecasts and revenue fueled by stablecoins
Shares of Coinbase Global slipped roughly 8%, closing in on $140.95 during Thursday afternoon trading. Investors appeared cautious ahead of the crypto exchange’s quarterly earnings report due after the market closed. Throughout the day, the stock fluctuated between $154.39 and $139.41.
The drop comes just hours ahead of Coinbase’s announcement of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings. Management plans to review the results during a webcast later Thursday, the company confirmed. 1
Risk appetite seems fragile across markets heading into Friday’s U.S. consumer price index report, a crucial inflation metric that could sway Federal Reserve policy expectations. “The bull case on the Fed cutting … was challenged,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, as stocks dipped. 2
Bitcoin slipped 2.2%, trading near $65,644, and ether dropped 1% to roughly $1,921. Shares tied to cryptocurrencies also followed the downward trend.
Monness, Crespi, Hardt analyst Gus Gala downgraded Coinbase to a “tactical sell” on Thursday, setting a $120 price target. He warned that earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 remain too optimistic. Gala called assumptions of a steady 2026 recovery “foolish and facile,” citing the duration of previous crypto bear markets. 3
JPMorgan has cut its price target to $290 from $399 but maintained an “overweight” rating. Analyst Kenneth Worthington pointed to a less favorable crypto environment as the reason. “We model revenue below the guide at $670mn (guide $710–790mn),” he wrote, highlighting weaker crypto prices, lower staking yields, and slower USDC growth. 4
Coinbase has been pushing to expand beyond just spot trading fees, and investors want to see if that strategy is paying off. According to a company-compiled snapshot of analyst estimates dated Feb. 11, total trading volume is expected to hit around $274 billion this quarter, with net revenue coming in near $1.751 billion. Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, is projected at about $655 million. Meanwhile, GAAP diluted EPS is forecasted to show a loss of roughly 5 cents per share.
Coinbase is zeroing in on “subscription and services” revenue, which covers stablecoin earnings and blockchain rewards, plus the potential boost from derivatives. In August 2025, it completed the acquisition of Deribit, a leading crypto options platform, expanding its reach in the derivatives market. 5
But the numbers might still look rough. H.C. Wainwright lowered its target price to $350 from $425, though it kept a buy rating. The firm warned that headline earnings could take a hit from unrealized losses—these are paper losses affecting accounting figures even if assets remain unsold—linked to Coinbase’s crypto holdings and its stake in CRCL. On top of that, first-quarter guidance for subscriptions and services may fall short of expectations. 6
Once the market closes, all eyes will be on Coinbase’s forecast for early 2026 trading volumes, along with hints about USDC balances and staking interest. Friday’s inflation report stands as the next major catalyst for bitcoin — and, by extension, for COIN.
