SYDNEY, March 13, 2026, 08:07 AEDT
Shares in Commonwealth Bank of Australia slipped 0.62% to finish Thursday at A$171.60, pressured as an oil rally stoked inflation worries that drove investors away from banks. The stock dropped as low as A$169.60 during the session. The S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.3%, closing at 8,629.00. 1
This is significant: CBA, the nation’s largest lender, was a driving force behind February’s bank stock surge, buoyed by a record-setting half-year result. Westpac and National Australia Bank touched fresh highs too, following their own strong numbers last month. Thursday’s dip, then, lands in a sector that’s been pricing in robust earnings. 2
Rates have been driving the action this week. On Wednesday, Reuters said economists at Westpac, NAB, and Commonwealth Bank now predict the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the cash rate next week. Markets are putting the odds of a 25-basis-point increase—lifting the rate to 4.1%—at roughly 75%. January’s headline inflation printed at 3.8%, with trimmed mean, the core gauge that excludes volatile components, coming in at 3.4%. Both figures remain above the RBA’s 2%-3% target band. 3
Commonwealth Bank’s economics team took a harder line. Belinda Allen, who leads Australian economics at the bank, said “the balance of probabilities has shifted,” adding that CBA is now forecasting rate hikes in both March and May. Over at Deutsche Bank, chief economist Phil O’Donaghoe argued it would be “the wrong one” to assume no March move, especially after Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser flagged the risk that oil could drive inflation higher. 3
Sellers hit financials hard—Reuters pegged the sector down 1.2% for Thursday. ANZ fared worse, dropping close to 2%. But energy names saw gains, thanks to Brent crude climbing past $100 a barrel. 4
CBA’s February numbers keep the spotlight on the stock. First-half cash net profit after tax hit a record A$5.45 billion, with home loans, business lending, and deposits all contributing. Michael Haynes of Atlas Funds Management pointed to “growth in the business bank” as the key story, also flagging the bank’s solid mortgage performance despite tougher conditions. 2
The picture’s messy. CBA reported its net interest margin — that’s the gap between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits — dropped 4 basis points to 2.04% for the December half, blaming tougher competition. Westpac, for its part, noted its underlying margin edged down 3 basis points, even though both deposits and loans kept climbing. If energy prices keep inflation running hot and the rate cycle stretches out, margin pressure and demand softness could start to overshadow the boost from higher rates. 2
No fresh company filing landed to account for Thursday’s move. CBA’s most recent market update, according to the ASX announcements page, went up March 3. That leaves a macro-driven pullback as the likelier explanation, not anything new from the bank.
