NEW YORK, February 19, 2026, 12:27 EST — Regular session
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 236.36 points, or 0.48%, to 49,426.30 by 11:41 a.m. ET on Thursday, with financials and some tech names dragging the blue-chip index lower. Private-equity firms slid after Blue Owl Capital moved to sell $1.4 billion of assets and freeze redemptions at one of its funds, and chip stocks stayed under pressure, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index down 0.7%. Deere & Co jumped more than 12% after lifting its annual profit forecast, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also edged lower. (Reuters)
The move mattered because investors are trying to price two different stories at the same time: a market still trading off earnings surprises, and a macro picture that keeps pushing back the moment the Federal Reserve can safely ease. When those collide, the Dow can jerk around on a handful of big, expensive names.
Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — is the next obvious catalyst, with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis listing the next release for February 20. A firm reading could harden the view that cuts stay a mid-year story, not a March one. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Early data on Thursday did little to settle the rate debate. Weekly initial jobless claims fell by 23,000 to 206,000, under economists’ 225,000 estimate, while the U.S. trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion, above forecasts for $55.5 billion, Reuters reported. “Without a reason to move, traders are going to be conservative,” said Joseph Trevisani, a senior analyst at FXStreet. (Reuters)
The Federal Reserve’s own minutes kept that uncertainty alive. Notes from the January 27-28 meeting showed officials broadly agreed to hold rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but split over what comes next, with “several” participants open to hikes if inflation stays sticky and others still leaning toward cuts if price pressures cool. The minutes also flagged artificial intelligence as both a potential productivity boost and a source of valuation risk. (Reuters)
Oil added another layer. U.S. crude rose 2.6% to $66.71 a barrel amid fears that U.S.-Iran tensions could disrupt supply, lifting energy shares even as broader indexes slipped, the Associated Press reported. (AP News)
The pullback followed a firmer finish on Wednesday, when the Dow closed up 0.3% at 49,662.66, the S&P 500 ended at 6,881.31 and the Nasdaq finished at 22,753.63, helped by a rally in Nvidia after Meta Platforms disclosed a large chip agreement, AP said. (AP News)
The Dow is price-weighted, so a sharp move in a higher-priced component can matter more than a bigger percentage swing in a smaller one. That’s why a rally in an industrial like Deere can blunt a broader slide that starts in banks and tech.
Still, the downside case is plain enough. If Friday’s inflation data comes in hotter than expected, yields could push higher again and put pressure on both high-growth stocks and rate-sensitive financials. A further jump in oil would complicate the inflation picture, too.
For now, traders are staring at Friday’s PCE report and the next round of Fed talk for clues on whether June really is the first clean opening for a quarter-point move.
