London, July 6, 2026, 09:19 BST
- easyJet trades at 612.20p/613.20p, rising 9.8%. The board said it would likely recommend Castlelake’s 690p offer.
- The stock trades about 12.7% below the cash deal price, leaving around £590 million potential upside on basic shares.
- Castlelake has a deadline of 5 p.m. London time on Aug. 3 to put in a firm bid or drop its pursuit.
easyJet plc (LON:EZJ) stock rose Monday as the airline agreed to support Castlelake’s fifth bid. Even so, the shares traded 77.8p under the 690p offer, with sellers quoted at 612.20p late in the session.
With 758.01 million shares out, the gap comes to around £590 million. The market is still pricing in deal risk, even after the easyJet board said it would be willing to recommend the offer on financial terms.
easyJet and Castlelake said Sunday they struck a deal in principle over the main financials of a recommended cash bid for the easyJet shares Castlelake doesn’t already hold. The offer also has a partial unlisted share option. It still depends on due diligence, paperwork and other conditions.
| Deal marker | Figure | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Monday quote | 612.20p sell / 613.20p buy | Stock is up 54.60p, or 9.78% |
| Castlelake fifth proposal | 690p per share | Cash offer terms now supported in principle |
| Gap to proposal | 77.8p per share | This is about 11.3% under the bid |
| Upside to proposal | 12.7% | Potential return if cash deal closes |
| Basic equity gap | About £590 mln | Based on 758.01 mln shares out |
| Firm-offer deadline | Aug. 3, 5 p.m. London | Castlelake needs to bid or step away |
The 690p offer tops analyst targets from before the weekend. According to Investors Chronicle data from July 2, the median 12-month target was 525p, and the highest was 610p, out of 13 analysts covering easyJet. On Monday, shares had already moved just above that 610p high.
| Reference point | Pence per share | 690p offer premium |
|---|---|---|
| Median analyst target, July 2 | 525p | 31.4% |
| Top analyst target, July 2 | 610p | 13.1% |
| Friday’s close | 558.20p | 23.6% |
| Monday delayed price | 612.20p | 12.7% |
This is important as focus has moved from an earnings rebound to whether the deal gets done. A cash offer above what analysts expect would usually bring the shares up to the bid price if the market saw little risk in the deal closing. That hasn’t happened.
Castlelake pushed its bids up fast. Earlier disclosure from the company showed the U.S. firm went from 560p to 600p, then 625p. Its 650p offer—proposal number four—got rejected June 25. Now Castlelake is at 690p, up 23.2% from the first 560p bid and 6.2% over the last one before this.
| Proposal | Date disclosed or reported | Pence per share | Change from prior bid |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | June 12 | 560p | — |
| Second | June 17 | 600p | 7.1% |
| Third | June 22 | 625p | 4.2% |
| Fourth | June 25 | 650p | 4.0% |
| Fifth | July 5 | 690p | 6.2% |
easyJet shares rose 10.9% to £6.18 at 0720 GMT, according to Reuters. JPMorgan analysts cited EU ownership and control obstacles, uncertainty over founder Stelios Haji-Ioannou’s stance, and risk around shareholder approval. Castlelake said it would use “best endeavours” to secure regulatory clearances. Reuters
Castlelake’s plan calls for the bidding vehicle to be split, with 49% owned by Castlelake and its backers like Brookfield Asset Management NYSE:BAM, and 51% held by EU nationals Peter Bellew and Mark Breen. EU law says airlines in the bloc must have a majority of EU ownership and control.
Dudley Shanley, analyst at Goodbody Stockbrokers, told Reuters the “narrative has definitively changed” after easyJet turned down Castlelake’s 650p offer in June. Shanley said easyJet was now “effectively in negotiations” with Castlelake. Samuel Ziff, portfolio manager at Oldfield Partners, also told Reuters easyJet had “a very valuable fleet” and “very valuable slots.” Reuters
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, told the Guardian after easyJet opened its books that the deadline extension meant “some kind of deal is doable.” The Guardian
Investors still have to think about the wider operating picture. easyJet posted a headline pretax loss of £552 million for its first half to March 31. That’s wider than the £394 million loss the year before. Passenger numbers grew 6%. Load factor was up two points to 90%. easyJet holidays turned in £61 million headline pretax profit as customer count jumped 22%.
easyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis said in May the airline is “well placed” for today’s market, pointing to its investment-grade balance sheet. As of March 31, easyJet reported £434 million in net cash and £4.7 billion in liquidity. The carrier flagged that summer bookings are trailing last year, with Jarvis citing uncertainty in the Middle East and higher fuel costs.
easyJet’s board told shareholders not to act yet, as Castlelake moves toward the Aug. 3 cutoff. The board also said there’s no guarantee of a firm bid, even if all pre-conditions are cleared or set aside.
