New York, March 1, 2026, 11:17 (EST) — Market closed
- Exxon Mobil last closed at $152.50 on Friday, up 2.7%
- Brent crude was quoted around $80 a barrel in weekend over-the-counter deals after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran
- OPEC+ agreed to lift output by 206,000 barrels per day from April, but traders are fixated on shipping through Hormuz
Exxon Mobil Corporation shares head into the new week with oil traders flagging a supply shock, after Brent crude was bid about 10% higher at around $80 a barrel in weekend over-the-counter trading — private deals done while futures markets are shut. The jump followed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that raised fears of a wider supply disruption. 1
Exxon (XOM) last closed at $152.50 on Friday, up 2.67%, after swinging between $149.25 and $153.65. The stock ticked up in after-hours trading, leaving investors to wait for Monday’s cash session to see how far energy shares reprice to the weekend oil move. 2
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day from April, a modest increase the group said represents less than 0.2% of global supply. “Prices will respond to developments in the Gulf and the status of shipping flows, not to a relatively small increase in output,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official. 3
Friday’s tone was already tense. U.S. crude settled up 2.78% at $67.02 a barrel and Brent settled up 2.45% at $72.48, while Wall Street’s main indexes ended lower as investors fretted about stretched valuations in parts of tech. 4
Oil’s surge into the weekend built off a nervous Friday. “Uncertainty prevails, fear is pushing prices higher today,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM, as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks were extended; DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar said “military strikes are in no way out of the equation.” 5
On Sunday, shipping data showed tankers pulling up short. At least 150 crude and LNG vessels dropped anchor in open Gulf waters beyond the Strait of Hormuz and dozens more were stationary on the other side, according to Reuters estimates based on MarineTraffic data. 6
A day earlier, several tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses suspended crude, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via Hormuz after Tehran said it had closed navigation, trading sources said. Laura Page at consultancy Kpler said 14 LNG tankers showed signs of slowing, turning or stopping, adding the number would likely rise. 7
But the same geopolitical premium that can lift Exxon’s earnings outlook on paper can also bring ugly second-order effects. At least three tankers were damaged off the Gulf coast, and BIMCO’s Jakob Larsen said the attacks “dramatically increases the security risk” for ships in the Persian Gulf; insurance broker Marsh’s Dylan Mortimer estimated near-term hull insurance rates in the Gulf could rise 25% to 50%. If shipping restrictions ease quickly, that risk premium in crude can fade just as fast. 8
Exxon has been leaning on buybacks and dividends to underpin its stock, and it has told investors it plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares through 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions. The company also declared a first-quarter dividend of $1.03 per share, payable March 10.
Before Sunday’s OPEC+ decision, two sources told Reuters the group was weighing a larger-than-planned output increase after Saudi Arabia and the UAE raised exports in anticipation of market disruption. The eight-member group includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, and any further tweaks to supply plans are likely to stay on traders’ screens this week. 9
The next catalyst is simple and immediate: the first full repricing in oil futures and energy equities when U.S. markets reopen on Monday, March 2, with tanker traffic through Hormuz the headline risk.
