London, Feb 27, 2026, 23:56 GMT — Market closed.
- Flutter closed down 15% in London; U.S.-listed shares fell nearly 14% in regular trading.
- The group’s 2026 profit outlook came in well below analyst expectations, with U.S. betting engagement in focus.
- Investors now watch for details on promotions, a planned loyalty push and prediction-markets spending.
Flutter Entertainment plc shares closed down 15% in London on Friday, ending at 7,712 pence, after the FanDuel owner set out a cautious 2026 outlook that rattled investors already on edge about U.S. sports betting momentum. The U.S.-listed stock finished down 13.8% at $106.14 and edged lower in after-hours trading. 1
The move matters because Flutter is a bellwether for online sports betting and iGaming, and its U.S. business is the main earnings engine. A weaker outlook lands as the NFL season rolls off and operators fight harder for customers, squeezing margins.
It also puts a spotlight on whether recent “bookmaker-friendly” results — games that leave bettors losing more often — are turning into a demand problem, not just a good quarter for the house. That’s a tougher message for a stock that has relied on steady U.S. growth and disciplined spending.
Flutter forecast 2026 core profit growth of just 4% to $2.97 billion, well below the $3.5 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG SmartEstimate, and pointed to softer U.S. engagement and misfiring promotions. “We just didn’t execute our generosity strategy as well as we should have done in the face of those results,” CEO Peter Jackson told Reuters, referring to bonuses and offers used to keep customers betting. 2
In its quarterly update, the company said fourth-quarter revenue rose 25% to $4.74 billion while adjusted EBITDA — a profit measure that strips out items such as interest, tax and depreciation — climbed 27% to $832 million. It also said U.S. “handle” growth, the total amount wagered, slowed to 3% and ran behind expectations, a trend it said has carried into early 2026. 3
Broker notes followed quickly. Bank of America cut its price target to $140 from $170 and kept a Neutral rating, saying Flutter’s 2026 U.S. revenue and EBITDA outlooks were below both its own estimates and broader market expectations, adding: “is it conservative enough?” 4
Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey was blunter on execution. “This is not simply a sports results issue; it reflects a breakdown in customer lifecycle management,” he wrote, arguing the company let margin optimisation run far enough to hurt customer activity. 5
The guidance miss is feeding a wider debate about competition from prediction markets — platforms that let users wager on the likelihood of an event — which have picked up attention in the United States. Flutter has played down the threat, but investors are watching whether the new category forces heavier marketing spend and caps sportsbook pricing power. 6
There’s a clear risk case, too. If engagement stays weak into spring, the group may have to spend more on promotions to defend share, crimping 2026 margins further. A regulatory crackdown on prediction markets could also cut both ways: it may slow a new channel Flutter is investing in, but could ease competitive pressure if rivals are curbed.
With the London market shut until Monday, investors will look for more colour on U.S. trends and the cadence of spending, especially around the planned loyalty drive and prediction-markets buildout. The next scheduled checkpoint is a fireside chat with CEO Peter Jackson and CFO Rob Coldrake at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 4. 7
