Detroit, Feb 12, 2026, 14:11 EST
Ford forecast 2026 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) — a measure of operating profit that strips out one-off items — of $8 billion to $10 billion, after a 2025 net loss driven by electric-vehicle charges and higher costs. It also guided to $5 billion to $6 billion of adjusted free cash flow, the cash left after capital spending, and said it expects to spend $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion on capital projects this year. Ford shares were up about 1% at $13.98 in afternoon trading. (Q4InvestorRelations)
The outlook matters because investors have been watching whether Detroit automakers can keep their cash engines running while the EV transition gets more expensive and less predictable. Ford’s 2026 ranges helped steady sentiment even after a weaker-than-expected quarter, as traders focused on the company’s cash and margin targets instead of the headline loss. (MarketWatch)
Ford is also trying to prove it can move faster on lower-cost models as competition tightens and policy shifts reshape demand. Chief Executive Jim Farley has said the company is betting on cheaper EVs, partnerships and hybrids, while peers General Motors and Stellantis have also flagged large charges tied to changes in electric-vehicle plans. Farley told analysts, “I do believe this is the right allocation of capital.” (Reuters)
The fourth quarter showed the strain. Ford’s adjusted profit was 13 cents a share, missing analysts’ estimates, while revenue of $45.9 billion topped expectations; the company posted a net loss of $11.1 billion for the quarter and $8.2 billion for the year. Morgan Stanley said the midpoint of Ford’s 2026 adjusted EBIT outlook was below its estimate, while Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote the guidance “largely cleared the bar.” (Investing)
One late-year change made the miss worse. The Trump administration told Ford on Dec. 23 that tariff relief on imported parts would only apply back to November, not May, cutting expected credits and adding roughly $900 million in costs, CFO Sherry House said. (Bloomberg)
Supply problems are still hanging over 2026. On the earnings call, House said Ford expects $1.5 billion to $2 billion of temporary aluminum sourcing costs — including tariffs and premium freight — until supplier Novelis can restart a key hot mill “sometime between May and September,” and Chief Operating Officer Kumar Galhotra also pointed to a restart window “between May and September.” (The Motley Fool)
The EV business remains the biggest drag. Ford’s EV unit lost $4.8 billion in 2025, and Farley said “the customer has spoken” as the company leans harder into hybrids and more affordable electrified models; it is still targeting EV break-even by 2029. (Business Insider)
Ford is also pitching affordability as a strategy, not a slogan. The company is planning five new models priced under $40,000 by the end of the decade, starting with an electric four-door pickup in 2027, House said at a Wolfe Research conference. (Bloomberg)
Some analysts stayed cautious even with the higher 2026 outlook. RBC’s Tom Narayan kept a Hold rating and a $12 price target, Barron’s reported, as investors weigh Ford Pro’s strength against the scale of losses in EVs and the sensitivity to policy and supply costs. (Barron’s)
But the rebound is not locked in. Ford’s 2025 results swung from a profit a year earlier to a loss after EV-related charges, and tariff policy shifts — like the retroactive change to relief credits — can still move the numbers quickly; more disruptions or higher duties would test the 2026 range. (Wsj)
