New York, February 19, 2026, 14:17 EST — Regular session
- U.S. gasoline futures climbed following an unexpected drop in inventories.
- Crude prices stayed steady, underpinned by tensions in the Middle East. Refined products got a boost as a result.
- Eyes are on the switch to summer-blend fuel, with traders also bracing for next week’s inventory numbers.
Gasoline futures in the U.S. pushed higher Thursday, with prices reacting to fresh government numbers pointing to a bigger drawdown in gasoline inventories than analysts had called for. Traders took the report as evidence of strengthening demand, well ahead of the usual spring boost. By mid-afternoon New York time, front-month RBOB gasoline contracts — the standard U.S. benchmark — had gained 3.4 cents, up about 1.7%, to hover near $2.00 a gallon. 1
Timing’s key here. Refineries are pushing capacity, yet inventories are sliding, and when those supply buffers shrink before the summer driving season, wholesale fuel prices can get volatile fast.
Factor in the looming transition to summer-grade gasoline, a cleaner-burning fuel that often costs more to produce, and even minor shifts in demand are getting a closer look from the market.
U.S. gasoline inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels last week, landing at 255.8 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration. That decline easily outpaced the draw expected in a Reuters poll. Refineries ramped up, with utilization hitting 91% — the highest in a month. The EIA also reported total product supplied, a key demand gauge, climbed to 21.65 million barrels per day. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo described the numbers as “very bullish,” highlighting “massive draws across the board.” Price Futures Group’s Phil Flynn pointed to rising gasoline demand now that people “got their cars out of the snow and started driving them again.” 2
Crude’s upswing is lending a hand to gasoline, too. Brent advanced roughly 1.8% to $71.60 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate picked up 1.9% to $66.41 by early afternoon. Traders zeroed in on mounting U.S.-Iran friction; Andrew Lipow at Lipow Oil Associates cited “geopolitical tensions” and rising concerns over a possible strike on Iran. 3
Gas prices at the pump remain steady for now. According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline stood at $2.92 a gallon on Thursday, just under last week’s figure. The group noted, though, that prices usually tick higher as spring nears and refineries shift to summer-blend fuel. 4
Refiners weren’t all following the futures surge. Valero Energy edged down 0.7%, while Marathon Petroleum dropped 1.1%. PBF Energy bucked the trend, gaining around 2.1%. Phillips 66 lost about 1.1% in afternoon action.
Refining stocks often move on the so-called “crack spread,” a margin gauge tracking profits from converting crude into fuels such as gasoline and diesel. If gasoline outpaces crude on the way up, margins fatten. But all it takes is a sharp crude rally to swing the balance the other way.
The bullish argument hinges on demand holding firm and refineries steering clear of a sharp supply comeback. Should refinery throughput keep rising, or if driving demand cools after weather issues subside, inventories might bounce back and put a lid on wholesale prices.
The EIA’s weekly petroleum report lands February 25. Traders are watching for signs of a shift into summer-grade output and a possible squeeze on product inventories. 5
