New York, Feb 18, 2026, 13:54 EST — Regular session
- NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures jumped roughly 2.5%, trading near $1.96 per gallon.
- Oil jumped over 3% as traders recalibrated for heightened geopolitical supply risk.
- Traders are watching for API data out later Wednesday. The EIA report lands Thursday.
Gasoline futures in the U.S. tacked on almost 5 cents a gallon Wednesday, lifting the contract close to $1.96. Crude oil’s latest move higher came after fresh supply-risk headlines. (Google)
This shift is significant: gasoline futures directly shape wholesale rack pricing and, after a delay, end up in what drivers see at the pump. Plus, the numbers feed right into inflation calculations—a sensitive spot right now, with markets reacting to every headline.
Retail prices aren’t showing much movement—AAA put the national average for regular gas at $2.923 a gallon this Wednesday. Futures, though, are where traders react quickest when fresh risk enters the picture. (AAA Fuel Prices)
It was oil that carried most of the weight. Brent climbed $2.38, up 3.53%, hitting $69.80 a barrel, while U.S. WTI rose $2.39, or 3.83%, reaching $64.72 at 12:09 p.m. ET, according to Reuters. Traders were confronted with fresh Iran concerns and stalled Ukraine-Russia negotiations. “The big moves in oil prices today are being solely driven by geopolitics,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. John Kilduff at Again Capital pointed to U.S. military hardware moving into the area. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop noted Iran was well aware that a major Hormuz incident was “the very last thing” President Donald Trump would want. (Reuters)
Gasoline-related plays followed suit. The United States Gasoline Fund (UGA), which tracks gasoline futures, gained roughly 2.8% to $69.95. (StockAnalysis)
The product complex tends to diverge from crude fast—refiner run rates shift, regional supply squeezes, and suddenly cracks widen or collapse. Right now, gasoline’s acting like a bellwether for risk. It tracks crude’s moves upward, then hesitates until inventory numbers land and either back up or puncture the narrative.
RBOB stands for reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending, the benchmark gasoline contract traded in the U.S. It’s priced in dollars per gallon. Each futures contract covers 42,000 gallons, meaning even modest price changes end up significant for both hedgers and speculators.
All eyes now turn to stockpile data. The Energy Information Administration will release its next Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Thursday, Feb. 19. (EIA)
The risk premium? It can vanish as quickly as it appears. Even a hint of easier shipping along major routes, or fresh optimism about negotiations, might send crude prices sliding — and gasoline tends to follow, provided U.S. inventories hold steady.
Right now, traders are zeroed in on Thursday’s EIA numbers and keeping a close eye on any new geopolitical shocks that could shake up energy supply forecasts. When it comes to gasoline, it’s all about whether the inventory and demand stats justify a futures rally that’s so far been fueled mainly by nerves.
