LONDON, June 30, 2026, 10:01 BST
Key points
- Glencore traded around 521p in London, up about 2%, while the FTSE 100 was up 0.33%; the LSE was open within normal 0800-1630 BST hours.
- Congo will strip unused first-half cobalt export quotas after June 30 and only customs-declared shipments by July 5 will count.
- Glencore’s 2026 cobalt allocation of 22,800 tonnes is about 3.9 times its first-quarter cobalt output; Q1 cobalt output fell 39% while copper output rose 19%.
- LME copper stocks were down 13.7% from June 1 to June 29, while cobalt prices were up 160% since February 2025.
Glencore plc (LON:GLEN) rose about 2% on Tuesday, beating a modest rise in the FTSE 100, but the sharper investor question sat outside the London tape: how much cobalt can the miner turn into cash before Congo’s quota clock runs out. Hargreaves Lansdown showed a 521.70p/522.00p sell-buy quote, up 2.15%, with delayed prices; another price feed put the stock at 520.80p, up 1.92%.
Democratic Republic of Congo’s strategic minerals regulator, ARECOMS, said on Monday that first-half cobalt export quotas unused by June 30 would be forfeited and moved to a state-controlled quota. Shipments must be declared in the customs system by July 5 to qualify under first-half rights, with the measures due to take effect on July 1.
| Tape check | Latest read | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Glencore share quote | about 521p, up about 2% | Stock is pricing copper strength and broader miner demand. |
| FTSE 100 | 10,518.99, up 0.33% | Glencore was ahead of the main UK index. |
| LME copper cash, June 29 | $13,302.50/t | Copper remained firm after a volatile June. |
| LME copper stocks | 333,100 tonnes, June 29 | Stocks fell from 386,050 tonnes on June 1. |
| Cobalt metal | $26/lb | Reuters said prices were up 160% since February 2025 after Congo curbs. |
The mismatch is the story. The share price points to copper. The Congo notice points to timing risk in cobalt, where unsold material can sit in-country even when the headline price is high.
Glencore had said in April that unused first-quarter 2026 cobalt quotas were valid until June 30 and that KCC and Mutanda had enough cobalt inventories to meet near-term quota levels. The same update put its 2026 cobalt export allocation, including 2025 carryover, at 22,800 tonnes, against 18,800 tonnes for 2027.
| Glencore data point | Reported figure | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 copper output | 199,600 tonnes, up 19% | African copper grades and Antamina drove the gain. |
| Q1 cobalt output | 5,800 tonnes, down 39% | DRC assets prioritised copper after cobalt quotas started. |
| 2026 cobalt quota | 22,800 tonnes | About 3.9 times Q1 cobalt production. |
| 2027 cobalt quota | 18,800 tonnes | Lower than the 2026 allocation with carryover. |
| Unused Q1 quota validity | June 30, 2026 | Same date as ARECOMS’ forfeiture cut-off. |
Congo holds more than 70% of the world’s cobalt reserves, Reuters reported, and has been using quotas to tighten control of a market tied to electric-vehicle batteries. That can support cobalt prices, but it can also make shipment paperwork, customs timing and local policy a bigger part of Glencore’s cash cycle.
Chief Executive Gary Nagle said in April that stronger commodity prices should “more than offset” input-cost pressure and that marketing EBIT could beat the top of Glencore’s $2.3 billion-$3.5 billion long-term range. That gives the stock a buffer if the Congo quota process slows cobalt sales, but it does not remove the working-capital risk. Glencore
The balance sheet shows why the cobalt detail matters. Glencore said net funding rose to $39.4 billion at the end of 2025 from $36.4 billion a year earlier, partly because readily marketable inventories rose 12% on stronger metals prices; net debt was almost flat at $11.17 billion. More metal in inventory can help collateral and trading scale, but investors tend to test it against cash conversion.
Copper is still the larger equity story. Glencore kept 2026 copper guidance at 810,000-870,000 tonnes and said the second-half weighting was 52%, with Collahuasi a main driver as ore and desalinated water availability improves. Nagle said in February that Glencore expected to produce more than 1 million tonnes of copper on an annualised basis by the end of 2028 and was targeting about 1.6 million tonnes by 2035.
The next dated test is July 5, when Congo’s customs-registration window closes for first-half cobalt quota shipments. After that, the stock has to trade on a cleaner split: copper volume recovery in the second half against any signs that cobalt inventories are still waiting for export rights.
