New York, Feb 13, 2026, 12:53 EST — Regular session
- Gold rebounded after a sharp slide a day earlier, with inflation data shifting rate-cut wagers.
- Traders refocused on U.S. yields and the dollar after January CPI undershot forecasts.
- Next up: Fed minutes and the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge.
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Friday, clawing back ground after the previous session’s selloff as softer U.S. inflation data revived bets that the Federal Reserve can cut rates later this year. Spot gold was up 1.4% at $4,987.59 an ounce by 11:04 a.m. ET, while April U.S. gold futures rose 1.3% to $5,010.80. “Gold, and particularly silver, is enjoying a relief rally,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. (Reuters)
The bounce matters now because gold has been trading like a rate product: when investors lean toward easier policy, real yields tend to ease and bullion looks less expensive to hold. After Thursday’s drop, Friday’s move also read like positioning — a rush to cover shorts rather than a clean break to new highs.
January’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.2%, below expectations for 0.3%, and annual inflation came in at 2.4%, a touch under forecasts, Reuters reported. Treasury yields slipped, with the 10-year last down 2.9 basis points to 4.075%; the dollar index was little changed near 96.932. “The inflation report is better than expected,” Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes, said. (Reuters)
Some banks are still leaning bullish. ANZ raised its second-quarter gold forecast to $5,800 an ounce, calling recent weakness a buying chance, even as it flagged that silver’s burst higher could fade if industrial demand cools at these prices. (Seeking Alpha)
In the physical market, volatility is showing up fast. Gold in India traded at a discount for the first time in nearly a month as buyers stepped back, while demand in China stayed firm ahead of the nine-day Lunar New Year starting Feb. 15, Reuters reported. (Reuters)
Gold-linked stocks have been choppy as bullion swings. Newmont fell 5.2% to close at $118.12 on Thursday, underperforming peers such as Royal Gold, which slipped 4.37%, MarketWatch data showed. (MarketWatch)
But the path is not clean. If upcoming inflation prints re-accelerate — or if the Fed leans harder on “higher for longer” — yields could rise again and squeeze bullion, especially with prices already near round-number highs that often draw profit-taking.
For next week, traders will parse the Fed’s latest meeting minutes and a fresh run of U.S. data for clues on how quickly easing could start, with markets sensitive to any signal that policy makers are less comfortable with the disinflation story than Friday’s CPI suggests. (S&P Global)
The next hard date on the calendar is Feb. 20, when the Commerce Department releases the personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
