New York, February 16, 2026, 16:02 (EST) — Market closed
- Gold slipped under $5,000, with the dollar ticking up in thin holiday trading.
- U.S. stock markets are closed for Presidents Day, with trading set to resume on Tuesday.
- Traders are eyeing the Fed minutes set for release Wednesday, with U.S. GDP and PCE inflation figures following on Friday.
Gold dropped under $5,000 an ounce on Monday, trading near $4,991, down about 1% from the previous close at $5,043.11. The dollar index ticked up to 96.97, while futures for the metal slipped 0.66%. U.S. 10-year yields eased off to roughly 4.04%. During the session, prices ranged between $4,966.51 and $5,043.11. (Investing)
With U.S. markets shut for Presidents Day, trading volume was on the light side, and stocks won’t start up again until Tuesday. Moves often seem exaggerated in thin conditions, particularly near big, round numbers. (AP News)
China’s Lunar New Year holiday is muting activity in parts of Asia, leaving traders juggling Fed expectations. According to FXStreet, markets are still betting on roughly 60 basis points, or 0.60 percentage point, in U.S. rate cuts by year-end—this, despite that strong U.S. payrolls report last week. (FXStreet)
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out gold is bouncing around $5,000 an ounce this week, liquidity taking a hit from the holiday slowdown. (Reuters)
Gold slipped as the dollar strengthened and traders weighed the Fed’s next move on rates. Since gold doesn’t yield interest, investors frequently compare its appeal with cash or bonds—costs go up for holding the metal when rates climb.
Traders are eyeing Wednesday for the next possible move: minutes from the Fed’s Jan. 27-28 meeting hit at 2 p.m. ET, according to the central bank’s calendar. After that, the next rate call is set for March 17-18. (Federal Reserve)
On Friday, the Commerce Department’s BEA drops its advance estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 GDP along with the personal income and outlays report, both set for 8:30 a.m. ET. That outlays report features the PCE price index—the inflation measure favored by the Fed. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Goldman Sachs isn’t buying the hype that gold’s rally points to a sweeping “commodity supercycle.” Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst at the bank, told listeners on Goldman’s podcast, “We’re not expecting a super cycle where prices will just go higher forever.” Still, their call for gold stands at $5,400 by the end of 2026. (Business Insider)
Right now, traders are sticking to the essentials: watching the dollar, tracking real yields—those inflation-adjusted bond returns—and eyeing the data to see if the Fed stays on course for cuts. Liquidity remains uneven, so $5,000 isn’t exactly a floor anymore; it’s more of a marker.
Still, holiday trading tends to throw off signals. A sudden dollar bounce or hotter-than-expected inflation might drag bullion back to session lows. Of course, any geopolitical jolt could just as easily send the mood the other way.
U.S. markets are back open Tuesday. Then it’s a quick pivot: Fed minutes hit Wednesday, with GDP and PCE numbers following Friday.
