New York, February 27, 2026, 12:38 (ET) — Regular session
- Spot gold rose about 1% and was set for a seventh straight monthly gain
- Middle East tensions and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields underpinned demand
- Traders are watching next week’s U.S. jobs report and March Fed dates
Gold rose toward a one-month high on Friday, supported by safe-haven buying as U.S.-Iran tensions lingered and U.S. yields eased, giving bullion another push late in February. Spot gold was up 1% at $5,238.75 an ounce by 11:31 a.m. ET, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.1% to $5,254. 1
The move matters because it caps a month in which rate expectations and geopolitical headlines have been driving sharp swings in assets that traders use as protection. On CME’s Globex, April gold futures were last at $5,250.5, up 1.08%, pointing to firm demand during the U.S. session. 2
Lower yields are doing some of the work. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.8 basis points to 3.977%, easing the “opportunity cost” of holding gold — it pays no interest, so higher yields make it harder to justify. 3
Geopolitics has been the other leg. The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem said Washington would permit non-emergency personnel and family members to leave Israel, citing safety risks, as worries about a wider military conflict with Iran build. 4
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said “there’s a lot of nervousness surrounding geopolitics” and described a “risk-off” tone — investors stepping back from riskier bets. He said the next upside target was $5,450, with support around $5,120.
Inflation is still the complicating factor. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose 0.5% in January, above economists’ 0.3% forecast, and goods prices excluding food and energy climbed 0.7%, the biggest gain since May 2022, the Labor Department said. “Given still-buoyant core inflation … we expect the Fed to remain on pause,” said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide. 5
Rate-cut pricing has not disappeared, but it’s jittery. CME FedWatch showed traders still pricing about a 42% chance of a 25-basis-point cut (a quarter of a percentage point) by June.
China remains a demand watch, too. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong in January rose 68.7% from December, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. 6
Beijing also moved to lean against a strong yuan, scrapping a 20% risk reserve requirement for forex forwards from March 2 to encourage dollar buying, the central bank said. Currency shifts can matter for bullion because gold is priced in dollars, though that link can flip quickly when geopolitics takes over. 7
Other precious metals ran hard. Spot silver rose 6% to $93.67 an ounce, while platinum climbed 3.5% to $2,352.05 and palladium was little changed at $1,785.47.
But this trade can turn on a headline. A clear breakthrough in the nuclear talks, or a rebound in yields on fresh inflation surprises, could drain safe-haven bids and trigger fast profit-taking after a strong month.
What’s next is the labor market. The U.S. February employment report is due March 6, a key check on whether wage and hiring momentum keep the Fed cautious. 8
After that, traders will focus on the next PCE inflation release on March 13 and the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting for any shift in rate language and projections — catalysts that can reset yields and, with them, the gold price. 9
