London, June 25, 2026, 12:10 BST
- GSK was up 0.05% at 1,951 pence by 1203 BST, giving the company a market cap close to £79.2 billion.
- Nuvalent Inc (NASDAQ:NUVL) is guiding for risk-adjusted revenue of $2.53 billion in 2031 and sees unlevered free cash flow at $936 million.
- GSK’s $9.4 billion net investment is about 3.7 times the estimated sales and 10 times the free cash flow forecast.
GSK shares didn’t move much Thursday as the company kicked off its $124-per-share cash tender offer for Nuvalent. New filings from Nuvalent spell out the sales growth GSK needs to make this its biggest purchase in over ten years.
Nuvalent is projecting net revenue of $14 million in 2026, climbing to $1.35 billion by 2030 and $2.53 billion for 2031, according to its unaudited, risk-adjusted management forecast. EBIT is negative until 2029, then expected to hit $1.50 billion by 2031. Unlevered free cash flow stays below zero through 2029, then moves up to $275 million in 2030, hitting $936 million in 2031.
GSK is putting an estimated $9.4 billion into the deal after accounting for cash acquired. That values Nuvalent at about 3.7 times 2031 sales and 10 times unlevered free cash flow, using Nuvalent management’s numbers for regulatory timing, launch, pricing, and share.
Centerview Partners’ discounted cash-flow analysis gave a value range of $106.15 to $125.55 a share for Nuvalent, using discount rates between 12% and 14%. GSK’s $124 bid comes in just $1.55 under the top end and sits around 7% higher than the midpoint. That doesn’t give much cushion if Nuvalent’s launches lag or sales miss forecasts.
Centerview’s public-company comp put the range at $74.50 to $131.95 a share. The firm used two to four times Nuvalent’s expected 2031 revenue, adding in estimated net cash.
Nuvalent was trading at $123.58 before the U.S. session Thursday, off 42 cents, or 0.34%, from GSK’s offer price. The tender runs through just after 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on July 14. It needs more than half of Nuvalent’s Class A shares and the expiration of the U.S. antitrust waiting period.
The board thought about reaching out to other possible bidders, but held back on a broad run at this point. Directors pointed to leak risk and said competitors would need more time, and that only GSK seemed equipped to finish work ahead of the planned zidesamtinib launch. According to the filing, several major drugmakers had their own rival efforts or were busy elsewhere.
GSK is guiding for low-single-digit core earnings dilution through 2028. The company said the deal should start boosting core operating profit in 2027, and core EPS in 2029. GSK kept its 2026 guidance unchanged.
“It’s larger than the bracket because it was unusual,” Chief Executive Luke Miels said after the deal. “It’s essentially three products in one.” James Eugene, analyst at GSK shareholder Verso Investment Management, said the deal size could catch investors off guard, since many had expected deals around $2 billion to $4 billion. He pointed out neladalkib will face competition from existing lung-cancer treatments. Reuters
Union Investment portfolio manager Markus Manns figures Nuvalent’s top two drugs might bring in as much as $3 billion to $4 billion at peak. “A specialty business without an oncology component is not a complete proposition,” GSK Chief Scientific Officer Tony Wood said. Reuters
The FDA plans to decide on zidesamtinib by September 18 and on neladalkib by November 27, according to Nuvalent.
