LONDON, July 7, 2026, 19:01 (BST)
- GSK’s London shares last traded at 2,003p, up 1.01%, after a 1,982p-2,031p day range.
- The stock now sits about 1.2% above the 18-analyst median 12-month target of 1,980p.
- GSK consensus implies an 11.1 times 2026 core EPS multiple and a 3.5% dividend yield at Tuesday’s price.
- The next test is whether Blenrep access and the Nuvalent deal can cover the HIV patent cliff before July 28 results.
GSK plc (LON:GSK) rose on Tuesday, but the more useful number for investors was not the one-day gain. It was the gap between the share price and the Street model.
At 1901 BST, after the London Stock Exchange regular session that runs from 0800 to 1630 BST, Davy’s delayed feed showed GSK at 2,003p, up 20p, or 1.01%, with a 1,982p-2,031p day range. The FTSE 100 closed up 0.1% at 10,655.88 points.
The stock clawed back 20p of Monday’s 32p fall. It is still 0.6% below Friday’s close, but up 3.8% from its July 1 close of 1,930p, according to daily price data. Volume was 3.93 million shares on Tuesday, down from 14.86 million on Monday.
| GSK price check | Latest |
|---|---|
| Tuesday last trade | 2,003p |
| Tuesday move | +1.01% |
| Monday move | -1.59% |
| Friday close | 2,015p |
| Day range | 1,982p-2,031p |
| Tuesday volume | 3.93 mln shares |
That leaves the shares above the middle of the analyst target range. Investors Chronicle data from LSEG shows 18 analysts have a median 12-month target of 1,980p, with a high of 2,790p and a low of 1,455p. The median target was 1.7% below a 2,015p reference price on July 6.
| Valuation marker | Figure |
|---|---|
| Share price used | 2,003p |
| 2026 consensus EPS | 179.8p |
| Implied 2026 P/E | 11.1x |
| 2026 consensus dividend | 69.4p |
| Implied dividend yield | 3.5% |
| Market cap shown by HL | £80.23 bln |
| 2026 consensus free cash flow | £5.23 bln |
| Implied free cash flow yield | 6.5% |
The issue is mix, not just growth. GSK’s own consensus collection shows group turnover rising only 3.6% from 2026 to 2031, but oncology sales more than doubling and Blenrep rising from £167 million to £1.42 billion. Dolutegravir-based HIV sales are forecast to fall 82.5% over the same period.
| GSK consensus model | 2026E | 2031E | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group turnover | £33.67 bln | £34.88 bln | +3.6% |
| Oncology sales | £2.47 bln | £5.06 bln | +104.4% |
| Blenrep sales | £167 mln | £1.42 bln | +749.7% |
| Dolutegravir-based regimens | £5.67 bln | £992 mln | -82.5% |
| Free cash flow | £5.23 bln | £7.05 bln | +34.7% |
That is why a billing code matters. GSK said on July 1 that Blenrep had received a permanent U.S. HCPCS J-code, J9053, effective the same day. Patrick Connor, head of U.S. oncology at GSK, called it a “clear, consistent reimbursement pathway.” Dr. Joseph Mikhael of HonorHealth Research Institute said community clinics need “clarity and predictability in reimbursement.” GSK US
GSK said about 70% of multiple myeloma patients receive care in community oncology settings. For a drug that consensus already pencils in for a near ninefold sales rise by 2031, reimbursement friction is not a small detail. It is part of the revenue bridge investors are paying for.
The other part is Nuvalent Inc. NASDAQ:NUVL. GSK agreed in June to buy the U.S. cancer-drug developer for $10.6 billion, or $124 a share in cash, a 40% premium to the prior close. GSK said the deal should add revenue from 2027, strengthen core operating profit through the 2028-2030 dolutegravir loss-of-exclusivity period and turn accretive to core EPS in 2029.
Luke Miels, GSK’s chief executive, told reporters the Nuvalent deal was “essentially three products in one.” James Eugene, an analyst at Verso Investment Management, told Reuters the size may have surprised investors used to smaller GSK bolt-ons. Reuters
GSK’s last quarterly numbers set the base. First-quarter sales were £7.63 billion, up 5% at constant exchange rates, while core operating profit rose 10% and core EPS rose 9%. Oncology sales rose 28%, but General Medicines fell 6%. Miels called it a “strong start to 2026.” GSK
GSK kept 2026 guidance for turnover growth of 3% to 5% and core operating profit and core EPS growth of 7% to 9%. It also said £1.7 billion had been executed under its £2 billion buyback and kept an expected 70p dividend for 2026. The next earnings announcement is expected on July 28.
