New York, Feb 18, 2026, 13:56 EST — Regular session
- Front-month NYMEX heating oil (ULSD) added 11.4 cents, settling at $2.5049 a gallon
- Crude staged a sharp rebound, with renewed Middle East risk driving the move.
- U.S. fuel stockpiles are in focus for traders, alongside the latest updates coming out of the Iran negotiations.
Heating oil futures in the U.S. jumped Wednesday. New York Harbor ULSD for the front month was trading at $2.5049 per gallon in the afternoon, up 11.4 cents, or roughly 4.8%. (Barchart)
This contract tracks the distillate market—diesel and heating oil—so shifts here ripple further than just the screen. A quick spike often hits wholesale diesel, then eventually shows up at the pump and in household heating bills.
Geopolitics took center stage again. This week, traders who dumped refined products on hopes for movement in U.S.-Iran negotiations scrambled to buy back as risk-driven headlines resurfaced.
Crude climbed over 3%, with traders factoring in the risk to supply around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—this after hopes for diplomatic progress had lifted sentiment earlier. “Solely driven by geopolitics,” said Andrew Lipow at Lipow Oil Associates, summing up the session. John Kilduff at Again Capital pointed to intense focus on “the amount of military equipment” in the area, while SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop noted that “Iran has time to negotiate.” (Reuters)
On NYMEX, heating oil refers to the ultra-low sulfur diesel contract for New York Harbor. Prices show up in U.S. dollars and cents per gallon, and each contract covers 42,000 gallons. (CME Group)
The tone shifted on Tuesday. Petroleum futures fell after reports flagged headway in nuclear negotiations, with March ULSD losing 1.62 cents to $2.3717 a gallon around midday, according to OPIS. (MarketScreener)
So now, distillate traders are back to an old dilemma. Fundamentals are key, sure, but once the market begins pricing in risk, headlines can steal the show.
U.S. inventory figures are on deck. The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly petroleum report this Thursday, Feb. 19, but due to the holiday, release times are bumped to noon and 2:00 p.m. Eastern. (EIA)
If distillate inventories — that’s heating oil and similar fuels — see a draw, bulls get a lifeline. But a build? That probably shows Wednesday’s move was just crude dragging everything else along for the ride.
Still, the downside is hard to ignore. Should worries about disruption in the Strait of Hormuz subside in short order, or if talks yield even a single “progress” headline, that risk premium can vanish quickly. Heating oil’s rally often unwinds just as fast.
Thursday’s EIA numbers are on deck, but traders are also watching for updates on the planned Iran-Russia naval drill and movement in U.S.-Iran talks. Any confirmation or new headlines from those fronts could quickly shift the tone.
