Moscow, Feb 22, 2026, 11:43 MSK — Market closed
Russian stocks head into a holiday-shortened week with sanctions risk back on screens after EU representatives failed to agree a new package before the weekend. The MOEX index rose 0.28% to 2,780.6 points on Friday and the dollar-based RTS index added 0.14% to 1,141.28; Natalia Milchakova, lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global, said VTB jumped 3.2% on a preferred-to-common conversion plan, while Mosenergo slid 5.6% after shareholders failed to approve 2024 dividends. “Geopolitical uncertainty and the approaching weekend restrained trading activity,” Alexander Shepelev at BCS World of Investments was quoted as saying, and he sees the MOEX index in a 2,720-2,820 range on Tuesday. (TASS)
Moscow Exchange shares, a liquidity proxy for the market itself, were last up 0.23% at 181.83 roubles in weekend pricing. With a break in the cash market coming up, traders tend to watch volume and spreads as closely as direction. (Trading Economics)
Oil remains the outside variable that Russian equities cannot dodge. Brent settled at $71.76 a barrel on Friday and ended the week up more than 5% as traders weighed supply risks tied to U.S.-Iran tensions; “the market is nervous,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. (Reuters)
The rouble has stayed firm in official rates, with the Bank of Russia setting the dollar at 76.7519 roubles and the yuan at 11.0929 from Feb. 21. A stronger currency helps on imported inflation but can compress rouble revenues for exporters, including oil names that dominate the index. (Central Bank of Russia)
That mix matters now because positioning is crowded in a handful of large stocks, and holidays shorten the window for exits. When liquidity thins, small flows can look like big moves.
The calendar is tight: on Feb. 23, public holidays in Russia mean all Moscow Exchange markets will be closed, and trading resumes on Tuesday, Feb. 24. That leaves four standard sessions for most investors to react to any sanctions headlines, oil swings, or company news. (Mondo Visione)
Rates are the other lever. VTB My Investments strategist Alexey Kornilov said the Bank of Russia’s key rate could fall to 12% or lower by end-2026, from 15.5% now — a view that keeps rate-sensitive banks in play even when geopolitics flares. (TASS)
Weekend trading offered little direction. The MOEX Russia Index finished flat on Saturday, with MTS up 0.53% and Rosneft adding 0.39%, while VTB eased 0.49%, Investing.com reported; the Russian Volatility Index (RVI) — implied volatility from MOEX index options — stood at 24.99. (Investing)
The next scheduled corporate catalyst is Sberbank. The lender is due to release Q4 2025 earnings on Feb. 26, according to Markets Insider’s calendar, and its tone on margins and loan growth tends to ripple through the banking complex. (Businessinsider)
But the downside case is simple: geopolitics swamps everything. Russia hit Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with a major missile and drone barrage overnight, killing at least one person, Ukrainian officials said, and Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha called for “tough sanctions” on the Kremlin. (Reuters)
For traders, the week starts late and could still move fast. The first full session on Tuesday, Feb. 24 will test whether oil holds above $70 and whether banks keep absorbing supply, before attention turns to Sberbank’s Feb. 26 earnings and any movement on the EU sanctions file.
