Moscow, Feb 22, 2026, 11:43 MSK — Market shut down
Russian shares face a trimmed trading week with fresh sanctions concerns resurfacing after EU officials couldn’t clinch a new package ahead of the weekend. On Friday, the MOEX index edged up 0.28% to 2,780.6, while the dollar-denominated RTS index gained 0.14% to 1,141.28. VTB surged 3.2% thanks to a preferred-to-common share conversion plan, noted Natalia Milchakova of Freedom Finance Global. Mosenergo, on the other hand, dropped 5.6% as shareholders didn’t approve 2024 dividends. “Geopolitical uncertainty and the coming weekend kept trading muted,” BCS World of Investments’ Alexander Shepelev said, pegging the MOEX between 2,720 and 2,820 for Tuesday. 1
Moscow Exchange shares were recently up 0.23% at 181.83 roubles, serving as a proxy for market liquidity in weekend pricing. As the cash market approaches a pause, traders usually zero in on spreads and volume, not just the price move. 2
Oil is still the wild card for Russian stocks. Brent finished Friday at $71.76 a barrel, closing out the week with a gain of over 5% as supply concerns linked to U.S.-Iran friction kept traders on edge. “The market is nervous,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. 3
The rouble is holding firm at official levels; the Bank of Russia fixed the dollar at 76.7519 roubles and the yuan at 11.0929, effective from Feb. 21. A stronger rouble works against imported inflation, though it tends to squeeze rouble-denominated earnings for exporters, especially oil majors driving the index. 4
Right now, positioning is packed tightly into just a few big names, and with holidays chopping down exit windows, that’s a problem. Less liquidity means even modest trades can swing prices sharply.
The schedule doesn’t offer much room: with Russia’s public holidays shutting all Moscow Exchange markets on Feb. 23, trading picks up again Tuesday, Feb. 24. Investors get just four normal sessions to grapple with sanctions chatter, oil moves, or fresh company updates. 5
Rates, of course, are the other lever. VTB My Investments strategist Alexey Kornilov reckons the Bank of Russia’s key rate might drop to 12% or below by the end of 2026, down from the current 15.5%. That prospect means rate-sensitive banks could stay relevant, even with geopolitics heating up. 6
Weekend trading didn’t point anywhere new. The MOEX Russia Index ended Saturday basically unchanged. MTS edged up 0.53%, Rosneft gained 0.39%. VTB slipped 0.49%, according to Investing.com. The Russian Volatility Index (RVI), reflecting implied volatility for MOEX options, clocked in at 24.99. 7
Sberbank is up next on the corporate calendar. The lender’s Q4 2025 earnings land Feb. 26, per Markets Insider’s calendar. What Sberbank says on margins and loan growth usually echoes across the sector. 8
The risk on the table? Geopolitics taking center stage. Russia unleashed a heavy barrage of missiles and drones overnight, targeting Ukraine’s energy systems, Ukrainian officials reported. At least one fatality was confirmed. Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha demanded “tough sanctions” against the Kremlin. 9
Traders are kicking off the week with a delayed start, bracing for a potentially rapid market. Tuesday, Feb. 24 brings the first full session, putting oil’s grip on $70 to the test and watching banks to see if they keep taking on supply. Sberbank’s earnings on Feb. 26 and any updates on the EU sanctions file are up next on the radar.
