London, Feb 15, 2026, 14:02 GMT — Market closed.
- IAG shares ended Friday up 1% at 434 pence, close to a 52-week high
- Fuel and EU carbon-permit swings are back on traders’ screens ahead of results
- Investors are positioning for IAG’s Feb. 27 full-year report and guidance
Shares in International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, the British Airways owner, ended Friday up 0.98% at 434.00 pence. The stock is trading within a 52-week range of 210.00 to 449.00 pence, after a choppy stretch for European travel names. (Investing)
With London shut for the weekend, the next real check-in is IAG’s full-year results on Feb. 27. That report lands just as investors start to look past winter schedules and into summer pricing and capacity decisions. (IAirGroup)
Cost lines are doing their own thing. Europe’s benchmark carbon price slid sharply this week to its lowest since August 2025, and airlines flying within Europe fall under the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) — a cap-and-trade market that forces firms to buy permits for CO2 emissions. (Reuters)
Jet fuel is the bigger, louder input. Brent settled at $67.75 a barrel on Friday and WTI at $62.89, with both posting weekly declines after earlier losses, Reuters reported. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said the inflation backdrop looked like it was “stabilizing”, but flagged the risk of more OPEC supply. (Reuters)
Demand is the harder part to model, and not just because of macro. Reuters Breakingviews noted the 2026 World Cup in the U.S., Canada and Mexico could nudge transatlantic volumes — routes that are typically more profitable for European carriers — but the numbers may not be big enough to shift annual outcomes on their own. The column cited RBC analysts forecasting North Atlantic capacity up 2.6% this summer versus 3.9% demand growth, and said IAG carried over 100 million passengers in 2024. (Reuters)
One near-term wild card sits in Washington. Airlines and travel groups urged U.S. lawmakers to avoid a partial government shutdown that could leave about 50,000 airport security officers working without pay ahead of the spring break travel period, Reuters reported. “Travelers and the U.S. economy cannot afford” it, the groups said in a joint statement. (Reuters)
Non-fuel costs are also creeping into the conversation again. Norwegian Air Shuttle said higher air traffic control and airport charges weighed on costs, and CEO Geir Karlsen told Reuters that talks over airport fees meant the 2026 outcome was “not even close to as bad” as it first looked. That kind of pressure matters for bigger groups too, because it tends to show up in unit costs and margins. (Reuters)
For a baseline on expectations, IAG’s own analyst-consensus graphic — updated on Jan. 23 — shows a mean FY2025 operating result (pre-exceptional items) of 4,980 million euros from 25 estimates, with a median of 5,008 million euros. (IAirGroup)
The risk case is simple: fuel spikes on geopolitics, or demand softens in premium cabins, and the earnings story changes fast. A second risk is policy-driven — carbon-market changes can cut both ways, and uncertainty can make forward planning messy, especially around hedging and ticket pricing.
European equities ended Friday slightly lower, a reminder that risk appetite is not steady even when sector fundamentals look fine. Airlines rarely trade in isolation for long, particularly when oil and rates move together. (Reuters)
What traders will watch next is IAG’s Feb. 27 report for guidance on North Atlantic demand, non-fuel cost control and any update on cash returns, alongside the usual questions on summer capacity and fuel hedging.
