London, Feb 15, 2026, 14:02 GMT — The market has closed.
- IAG finished Friday’s session 1% higher at 434 pence, just shy of its 52-week peak.
- Traders are once again tracking moves in fuel and EU carbon permits as results approach.
- IAG’s full-year numbers and outlook land Feb. 27, and investors are already making their moves.
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA shares closed Friday at 434.00 pence, gaining 0.98%. The British Airways parent has moved between 210.00 and 449.00 pence over the past year, a volatile period for European travel stocks. 1
London’s closed up for the weekend, so the next signpost for the sector is IAG’s full-year numbers, due out Feb. 27. That’s when investors will be turning their attention beyond winter timetables, weighing up summer fares and seat numbers. 2
Cost trends aren’t following the script. Europe’s main carbon price tumbled this week, hitting levels last seen in August 2025. Carriers operating inside Europe are included in the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS), which compels companies to purchase permits for their carbon output. 3
Jet fuel packs the heftier punch here. Brent finished Friday at $67.75 a barrel, while WTI closed at $62.89—both benchmarks logging weekly losses after slipping earlier in the session, according to Reuters. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, called the inflation picture “stabilizing,” but pointed out potential for additional OPEC barrels. 4
Demand is trickier to pin down, and macro factors aren’t the only reason. Reuters Breakingviews pointed out the 2026 World Cup spanning the U.S., Canada, and Mexico could give a lift to transatlantic traffic — those routes usually deliver higher margins for European airlines — though any bump might not be enough to significantly move the needle for full-year results. RBC analysts, quoted in the column, expect North Atlantic capacity to climb 2.6% this summer, while demand could rise 3.9%. IAG, for its part, flew more than 100 million passengers in 2024. 5
Washington has a potential curveball in play. Airlines and travel industry groups are pressing U.S. lawmakers to head off a partial government shutdown, Reuters said, warning that such a move could force around 50,000 airport security officers to work without pay just as the spring break rush kicks in. “Travelers and the U.S. economy cannot afford” that scenario, the groups said in a joint statement. 6
Non-fuel expenses are back in focus. Norwegian Air Shuttle flagged a hit from rising air traffic control and airport fees, with CEO Geir Karlsen telling Reuters negotiations on airport charges have improved the outlook for 2026—calling the result “not even close to as bad” as initially feared. For larger carriers, this type of cost pressure typically makes itself felt in per-unit expenses and thinner margins. 7
IAG’s analyst-consensus chart, last refreshed on Jan. 23, puts the mean FY2025 operating result before exceptional items at 4,980 million euros, based on 25 estimates. Median comes in just a touch higher at 5,008 million euros. 8
Here’s the risk: fuel jumps on geopolitics, or demand falters in premium cabins, and earnings can flip quickly. Another risk comes from policy—carbon-market tweaks swing both directions, and that kind of uncertainty complicates forward planning, particularly with hedging and ticket pricing.
European stocks wrapped up Friday a bit in the red, showing nerves can flare up regardless of how solid the backdrop looks for some sectors. Airlines, for one, don’t tend to fly solo on these moves—especially with oil and rates shifting in tandem. 9
Next up for traders: IAG’s Feb. 27 report. Eyes will be on North Atlantic demand signals, non-fuel cost management, and any word on cash returns. Usual topics—summer capacity and fuel hedging—will also be in the mix.
