SAO PAULO, March 7, 2026, 03:48 (UTC-03:00).
The Ibovespa slid 0.61% to close at 179,364.82 on Friday in Sao Paulo, capping a rough week with a 4.99% drop. Oil’s rally—spurred by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran—mixed with lackluster U.S. payrolls numbers, put investors in a cautious mood. Shares of Petrobras and other oil firms managed to climb, but it wasn’t enough to offset broader losses.
The timing couldn’t have been worse for Brazilian stocks. Heading into March, traders were positioning for Copom to lower the Selic rate, with Citi analysts pointing out that a softer inflation reading “would allow Copom to begin the cutting cycle in March.” But now, with crude prices jumping, that scenario looks less certain. Central bank director Nilton David called out the inflation risk from oil, saying its impact is obvious—“the question is: for how long?” Reuters
B3 finds itself squeezed as Brazil’s economy loses steam and new global jitters emerge. The country expanded just 2.3% in 2025—softest since 2020’s pandemic slump—with the last quarter eking out only 0.1% growth from the previous period, according to official data.
Monday took a turn. Ibovespa edged up 0.28% to 189,307.02, while Petrobras stood out—preferred shares surged 4.58%, voting shares tacked on 4.63%. PRIO and PetroReconcavo joined the rally as oil climbed, a snapshot of investors piling into oil names.
The index wiped out its previous gains Tuesday, dropping 3.28% to 183,104.87. Fresh concerns around the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial route for oil exports—and the risk of broader conflict knocked risk sentiment. GDP numbers met estimates but failed to calm the market. “The growth data shows activity is slowing, but external factors are dominating,” said Bruno Perri, chief economist at Forum Investimentos. Bora Investir
On Wednesday, the index clawed back 1.24% to close at 185,366.44, buoyed by talk from Washington about stepping in to safeguard oil tankers and a move by Brazil’s central bank easing rules for banks supporting the deposit guarantee fund. The rally fizzled fast. By Thursday, the Ibovespa gave up 2.64%, sliding to 180,463.84. José Victor Cassiolato at Victrix Capital pointed to a drawn-out conflict: stronger dollar, costlier oil, and less hope for a sizable rate cut.
Friday’s action was less clear-cut. Petrobras reported a fourth-quarter net profit of 15.6 billion reais, announcing plans to return 8.1 billion reais to investors by way of interest on equity—a Brazil-specific mechanism not unlike dividends. CFO Fernando Melgarejo said the company would “love” to hand out extra dividends if stronger oil prices held up and boosted cash flow, but made it clear that’s not on the table “at this time.” Reuters
A sharp de-escalation in the Middle East or more clarity on Brazilian rate cuts could flip the outlook. Goldman Sachs, for its part, says Brent may push past $100 a barrel if Hormuz flows fail to bounce back. Brazil’s central bank has already made it clear: any loosening will hinge on the data, and policy will remain tight even after cuts begin.
