Lumentum stock jumps nearly 5% as Mizuho lifts target to $645 in AI optics trade

Lumentum stock jumps nearly 5% as Mizuho lifts target to $645 in AI optics trade

February 17, 2026

New York, Feb 17, 2026, 11:38 ET — Regular session

Lumentum Holdings (LITE.O) jumped almost 5% Tuesday after Mizuho bumped up its price target for the optical components firm. Shares climbed $27.26, or 4.8%, to hit $590, swinging between $530.23 and $597.69. Volume landed at roughly 2.3 million shares.

This call is grabbing attention — the market’s no longer writing off optics as just another telecom backwater, especially when it comes to AI data centers. Investors are snapping up anything that pushes more data through those server farms. Lumentum is right in the thick of that flow.

The upgrades come on the heels of a major reset in sentiment after Lumentum’s early-February numbers and guidance. The company turned in $665.5 million in revenue for the latest quarter, projecting $780 million to $830 million this quarter. Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings are expected between $2.15 and $2.35 a share. CEO Michael Hurlston pointed out the optical circuit switch backlog—orders not yet shipped—has climbed “well beyond $400 million.” Lumentum Investor Relations

Lumentum highlighted co-packaged optics—a setup putting optical links right next to processors, aimed at trimming power use and lifting bandwidth—as a growth play with a longer time horizon. Optical circuit switches, which move data around a data center using light, help ease congestion during surges in workloads.

Peers traded in different directions. Coherent picked up roughly 1.4%. Ciena dropped around 1.2%, and Applied Optoelectronics eased off by about 1.5% early on.

The split underscored that Lumentum’s rally Tuesday looked like a company story, not a broad sector wave.

Lumentum makes optical and photonic gear for cloud and communications networks, plus lasers targeted at industrial uses. It breaks out earnings into Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech.

But the stock’s quick moves come with a catch. Bets riding on AI spending can get hit hard—cloud customers pull back, delivery timelines hit snags, or rivals start catching up on performance, and trades can unravel just as quickly.

Investors are eyeing those hefty backlogs, looking to see if they actually show up as revenue—without the company sacrificing margins as it scales up production to keep pace with demand.

Up next: an investor briefing set for March 17 at the Optical Fiber Communication Conference in Los Angeles, where management should outline both the business direction and upcoming products.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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