Sydney, June 15, 2026, 05:02 (AEST)
- Lynas Rare Earths closed at A$17.77 on June 12, rising A$0.88, or 5.21%. Volume topped 4 million shares.
- The stock is up almost 100% in the past year, but new valuation screens point to a thinner margin for error after the rally.
- Lynas’ next key test comes with its June-quarter update. MarketIndex has the company’s upcoming quarterly results set for July 23, 2026.
Lynas Rare Earths Limited finished up 5.21% at A$17.77 on Friday, outperforming the ASX 200, which rose 1.98% according to Trading Economics data as of June 12. Lynas is still drawing buyers as investors target companies set to benefit from rare earth projects outside China. The stock ran up 10.7% in the last four weeks and has almost doubled, up 97.44% over the past year.
Lynas shares aren’t trading like those of a typical miner tied just to commodity spot prices. The company is the biggest rare earths producer outside China. NdPr is used in magnets for EVs, wind turbines and defense. Reuters said China makes about 90% of the world’s rare earth magnets, so supplies outside China carry a premium for investors.
Lynas is still seen as a bull story for some, with investors pointing to strong earnings visibility from geopolitical demand. The company in March reworked its Japan Australia Rare Earths pact, locking in yearly supply of 5,000 tonnes of NdPr at a US$110-per-kg floor price through 2038. Reuters said JARE will also take half of the company’s heavy rare earths output. CEO Amanda Lacaze said the agreement means Japanese industry gets a “reliable supply” of rare earths. Reuters
Lynas posted March-quarter gross sales revenue of A$265 million, up from A$123 million a year ago, lifted by strong prices and improved product mix. Rare earth oxide production jumped 69% to 3,233 metric tons. The average NdPr selling price gained 25% over the previous quarter, Reuters said. Reuters Recent operating numbers back up the case, though risks remain.
The doubt for bulls is that the market already prices in much of the good news. Simply Wall St’s June 13 valuation screen set Lynas’ discounted cash flow (DCF) at A$19.73 per share, only 9.9% above its A$17.77 market price. DCF tries to estimate what future cash flows are worth as of now. The same Simply Wall St analysis showed Lynas with a price-to-sales ratio of 25, higher than its calculated “fair ratio” of 5.69. That leaves the stock looking more fairly valued than cheap. Simply Wall St
Leadership is back in focus for Lynas shares. The company said Chief Operating Officer Pol Le Roux will step in as interim CEO starting July 1, with Amanda Lacaze leaving June 30. Chair John Humphrey said Le Roux “has over 20 years of experience in the rare earths industry.” Hand-off plans look smooth so far, but investors want updates on finding a permanent CEO, progress at Kalgoorlie and Malaysia, and if the increased material costs reported after the March quarter can be managed. Reuters
Lynas’s next key event is the June-quarter report, scheduled for July 23 by MarketIndex. Preliminary and annual numbers come August 27. The focus will be on production, realized NdPr prices, cash flow, and what’s said about supply deals. The stock trades at a premium, so investors want to see Lynas turn its strategic role into solid margins. With current market prices, recent valuation checks, and the deal risks, Lynas doesn’t look cheap—maybe fair to risky—but the supply-chain angle still appeals.
