Sydney, Feb 26, 2026, 18:29 AEDT — Market closed.
- Lynas ended up 1.2% after swinging from an early jump to a late fade
- Half-year profit rose sharply on higher sales volumes and prices, but missed forecasts
- Traders now focus on power stability at Kalgoorlie and whether rare-earth prices hold
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd shares closed up 1.2% at A$17.24 on Thursday, paring a sharper early gain as investors digested the miner’s half-year numbers. About 7.9 million shares changed hands, and the stock is up about 9% over the past two sessions. (Investing)
The result lands at an awkward moment for the rare-earths trade. Prices have been moving again, supply chains are still political, and Lynas is one of the few scaled producers outside China, so its numbers tend to become a proxy for the theme.
NdPr — short for neodymium and praseodymium, used in permanent magnets for electric motors and wind turbines — is the key swing factor. When the benchmark moves, earnings can move with it, and so can the stock.
Lynas said net profit after tax rose to A$80.2 million for the six months ended Dec. 31, from A$5.9 million a year earlier, while revenue rose to A$413.7 million and EBITDA — a rough cash-profit measure — climbed to A$152.4 million. CEO Amanda Lacaze called the period “an exciting one” as Lynas finished commissioning its Mt Weld expansion and increased volumes, with the China domestic NdPr price reaching US$111.5/kg “yesterday,” the company said.
Still, the headline beat came with dents. The profit missed a Visible Alpha consensus estimate of A$91.8 million, and Lynas did not declare an interim dividend. Power failures at its Kalgoorlie facility in Western Australia hit production and lifted costs, Reuters reported. (Reuters)
The market’s first instinct was to buy the earnings rebound, then argue about durability. By the close, the day looked less like a breakout and more like a tug-of-war.
In investor material, Lynas pointed to policy-driven shifts in pricing and demand, including the U.S. government’s offtake deal with MP Materials that includes a US$110/kg NdPr floor price. It also said Kalgoorlie’s electricity supply stabilised from December after remediation work, while the company continues work on off-grid solutions; Lacaze has also flagged plans to retire at the end of the current financial year. (Company Announcements)
Reg Spencer, a metals and mining analyst at Canaccord Genuity Australia, said Lynas is “quite different from your typical mining company,” pointing to its integrated assets and position outside China. (Mining Weekly)
The risk case is straightforward: rare-earth prices can turn fast, and operational snags do not need much encouragement to chew through margins. Any fresh disruption at Kalgoorlie, or a softer pricing tape, would test how much of this week’s run is fundamentals and how much is positioning.
For Friday and into next week, traders will watch whether Lynas can keep the post-results bid, and whether management can show cleaner, steadier operations at Kalgoorlie while lifting output and holding realised pricing as benchmarks wobble. CEO succession chatter will sit in the background until closer to the end-of-financial-year handover.
