Sydney, May 13, 2026, 05:10 AEST
- Macquarie Group finished Tuesday’s session at A$234.20, slipping 2.15% as selling hit financial stocks on worries over mortgage demand and housing-tax risks.
- Shares slipped just days after a standout FY26 showing. Net profit after tax jumped 30% to A$4.847 billion, driven mainly by the Commodities and Global Markets division’s performance.
- Bulls point to solid earnings momentum and ongoing broker backing. Bears, though, flag a stock trading close to its highs, a buyback that’s wrapped up, and profits leaning heavily on market swings.
Investors didn’t punish Macquarie Group for missing on profits—quite the opposite. The stock slipped after the market had already run it up, only to turn its focus to whether those profits are sustainable. MQG closed Tuesday at A$234.20, down 2.15%. That’s a pullback from Friday’s record A$249.49, set when the FY26 figures hit.
Sectors took the hit right off the bat. The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.36%, with the financials sliding 1.6%. ANZ and NAB shed 2.1%, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac each slipped 1.4%. Bank shares were dumped as investors braced for the federal budget, worried that tweaks to negative gearing and capital gains tax could take some heat out of mortgage demand.
The worries turned concrete by night’s end: starting July 1, 2027, the budget spells out tighter limits on negative gearing for established homes. The familiar 50% capital gains tax discount gets scrapped—replaced with inflation-adjusted gains and a 30% floor on net capital gains tax. Macquarie doesn’t operate like the major mortgage-heavy banks, but its Banking and Financial Services division isn’t immune if the housing credit tap slows.
The numbers say it all: Macquarie posted a FY26 net profit after tax of A$4.847 billion, a 30% jump, with a record-breaking A$3.192 billion profit in the second half. Return on equity reached 14.0%. The final dividend moved up to A$4.20 per share.
Shemara Wikramanayake, the chief executive, kept things measured—no frills—highlighting how each business relied on “specialist expertise” to steer through the current conditions. Investors, though, likely zeroed in on the mix: international income accounted for 68% of total, with all four operating groups turning in stronger numbers than a year back. That global reach is part of why Macquarie often behaves less like a typical domestic bank, more like a levered play on markets, infrastructure capital, and deal flow. Macquarie
Commodities and Global Markets delivered the biggest lift, with profit contribution up 49% to A$4.221 billion. Oil, gas and power price swings, coupled with hedging from clients and the OnStream meters sale, helped drive the division’s gains. Still, CGM head Simon Wright told Reuters that while “volatility is welcome,” too much of it can end up keeping clients on the sidelines. Reuters
That tension sits at the heart of the stock story. JPMorgan upped its price target to A$265, from A$240, sticking with its Overweight call after a strong fourth quarter, stronger CGM numbers, and the OnStream bump. Jefferies took a bullish stance as well—analyst Andrew Lyons sees Macquarie shifting into a more stable phase, backed by a better earnings mix.
Bulls point to a straightforward setup: Macquarie’s found its operating leverage again, the balance sheet looks solid, and private credit plus infrastructure keep rolling as long-term growth engines. Unlike CBA, NAB, or ANZ, Macquarie isn’t pinned down by the same home loan pressures. As long as volatility sticks around and clients keep putting on trades, CGM’s earnings flow. Macquarie Capital, too, can turn those mandates into actual fees.
The bear argument lands fast. Much of the profit jump stemmed from tricky factors to forecast—think war-driven swings in energy, asset disposals, and a second-half equity return that probably isn’t here to stay. On top of that, Macquarie scrapped its A$2 billion on-market buyback, taking away a backstop investors still care about, even if the company hadn’t tapped it recently.
Rates remain a sticking point. On May 5, the RBA bumped its cash rate target up to 4.35%, citing lingering upside risks to inflation. Over on Polymarket, traders are betting around 78% on no RBA move in June. Kalshi’s Fed page, meanwhile, has the odds of no U.S. rate cuts in 2026 leading at 54%, with Polymarket showing that same outcome at about 61.9%. Higher-for-longer rates can boost some lending income for Macquarie, but they’re also a drag on property, asset values, credit quality, and deal flow.
Tuesday’s dip wasn’t about investors souring on Macquarie’s numbers. Instead, it marked a shift—coming off a record high, expectations just had to come back down. The growth case for the stock is intact. Now, though, the market wants more than a headline beat. It’s weighing how much of CGM’s windfall, the robust appetite for credit, and that high-rate buffer can actually last through the quarters ahead.
