SEOUL, Feb 2, 2026, 22:13 (KST)
- TrendForce projects conventional DRAM contract prices to jump 90%-95% quarter-on-quarter in Q1
- Contract prices for NAND flash are expected to climb by 55%-60%, while enterprise SSD prices are predicted to increase between 53% and 58%
- PC DRAM prices are set to surge over 100% as shortages hit key buyers
Market researcher TrendForce on Monday sharply increased its forecast for memory chip prices, now predicting a 90% to 95% jump in conventional DRAM contract prices in Q1 compared to the prior quarter. This is a big step up from its earlier estimate of a 55% to 60% rise. The firm cited “persistent AI and data center demands” as key drivers that are intensifying supply shortages and strengthening suppliers’ pricing power. (Reuters)
DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, serves as the primary working memory in PCs and servers. Contract prices refer to the rates that major buyers settle on with chipmakers in supply agreements, usually adjusted during periodic negotiations.
The revision’s timing is critical since it hits during the January-to-March quarter, a key period when device manufacturers and data center operators scramble to secure parts. Changes of this magnitude can ripple through everything—from PC production schedules to cloud infrastructure spending.
TrendForce’s latest survey bumped its NAND flash forecast—the storage tech behind solid-state drives—from 33%-38% quarter-on-quarter to a hefty 55%-60%, with room to go even higher. It also projected PC DRAM prices to soar over 100% quarter-on-quarter. Server DRAM and mobile-focused LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X are each expected to rise around 90%. Enterprise SSD prices? They’re predicted to climb between 53% and 58%. (TrendForce)
TrendForce highlighted surprisingly robust PC shipments from October to December, with inventories dropping even among leading PC manufacturers. Cloud service providers (CSPs) and server OEMs, the builders of data center systems, are vying for scarce supply, nudging some buyers to lock in annual long-term contracts.
Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron Technology dominate the DRAM and NAND markets. TrendForce didn’t specify companies in its forecast, but its predicted shift—capacity moving toward higher-margin AI and server products—usually squeezes the space for mainstream components used in consumer devices.
The pressure isn’t just on DRAM. TrendForce reported that memory makers are shifting some of their production capacity to DRAM, which is squeezing NAND supply. Short-term fixes will be tough, with only minor process improvements offering any relief.
Executives have been sounding the alarm for months that this spike isn’t just temporary. Khein-Seng Pua, CEO of Phison Electronics, revealed that the price of 1TB TLC NAND jumped from $4.80 to $10.70 between July and November last year. (Techzine Global)
The big question remains how much of the shock buyers can handle. TrendForce noted that talks over certain smartphone supply deals dragged on into late February. Predictions could shift dramatically if demand estimates overshoot or if suppliers unlock more production capacity than anticipated.
