Mexico City, Feb 22, 2026, 02:44 (CST) — The market has closed.
- Mexican stocks step into a packed week for data, one that could jolt expectations for both rates and the peso.
- U.S. trade-policy headlines continue to steer traders’ decisions.
- Earnings season is still moving individual stocks in real estate, telecom, and consumer sectors.
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC finished Friday with a 0.83% gain, closing at 71,436.55. Coming up: local macro numbers and signals from Washington on trade are on deck, both likely to influence if the index breaks higher or holds steady. (Reuters)
The index is packed with names tied to domestic rates, so when growth or inflation numbers come in off-script, the peso doesn’t hesitate to react. Carry trades and local earnings have been the investors’ go-to, but that formula gets shaky as soon as rate bets start to shift. The reason this stands out now is straightforward.
Another big variable: the U.S. U.S. equities ended Friday in positive territory following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. However, Trump responded by pledging to seek a fresh 10% tariff, a move that left traders on edge over the possibility of a sudden shift in trade policy. (Reuters)
The S&P/BMV IPC tracks the largest and most actively traded stocks listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, using a modified market cap weighting. This setup makes the index particularly reactive to sharp swings in its biggest names. (S&P Global)
Despite Friday’s uptick, the IPC slipped 0.06% for the week, snapping a two-week streak of gains, EFE reported. Gabriela Siller, Banco Base’s chief economist, put the broader global mood as “broad gains,” flagging a “rebound effect” stateside after earlier tech selloffs. Actinver’s Enrique Covarrubias described the week locally as a “slight decline,” though he pointed out the index is still up 5.66% in February and 11.08% year-to-date. (Investing.com México)
Earnings continue to shake up individual stocks. Industrial real estate firm Vesta surged over 5% following its latest quarterly numbers. Megacable, the cable operator, tacked on roughly 2% after releasing its own report. It’s a clear signal: single-stock moves can take charge of the action, calm index or not. (Forbes México)
Rates hang in the background. Banxico officials, according to minutes from the last meeting, signaled they could bring rate cuts back on the table—if inflation from new tax and tariff moves stays contained. The central bank just kept its key rate steady at 7% on Feb. 5, which snapped a lengthy streak of reductions. (Central Banking)
Private economists aren’t forecasting a surge. Citi’s most recent Mexico expectations survey, dated Feb. 20, shows the median GDP growth prediction for 2026 sticking at 1.4%. Year-end 2026 core inflation expectations nudged higher, landing at 4.15%. (Citi)
Looking to the week ahead, traders have their eyes on several key data drops: December economic activity and final Q4 GDP land Monday; Tuesday brings the first-half-of-January CPI, a leading read for inflation; Wednesday is set for the current account; jobless figures for January arrive Thursday; then Friday closes out with January trade and fiscal balance numbers, according to the Trading Economics calendar. (Trading Economics)
Still, the risk scenario isn’t hard to map out. Say inflation jumps higher mid-month—rate-cut chatter likely dries up, putting fresh heat on sectors most exposed to interest rates. A bad turn in activity data could rattle confidence in that “soft landing” narrative the market’s been banking on. Throw in a fresh wave of U.S. tariff headlines, and the peso can sell off hard, usually dragging Mexican stocks along with it.
Mexico faces its first major hurdle with growth figures out Monday. Traders will quickly move on to Tuesday’s mid-month inflation data, hunting for signs that price pressures are letting up—or whether they’re lingering longer than markets would like.
