NEW YORK, March 3, 2026, 16:22 EST — Shares moved after the bell
- Microsoft climbed roughly 1.3% in after-hours trading, sidestepping pressure across the broader market.
- OpenAI’s Pentagon contract moves, along with U.S. agencies pivoting from Anthropic, kept the spotlight on how AI adoption and safeguards are evolving.
- Focus is on a Morgan Stanley conference appearance, plus Friday’s U.S. jobs report, as traders look for the market’s next catalyst.
Shares of Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) climbed 1.3% to $403.82 in after-hours trade Tuesday. The stock swung between $389.70 and $406.66 earlier. At that level, Microsoft’s market cap comes in around $3.6 trillion.
The rebound caught attention, with the wider market still grappling with a new surge in geopolitical risk and the inflation threat it brings. “Investors are growing anxious about the duration of the war and its impact on energy prices,” said Joseph Tanious, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust Asset Management. 1
Oil’s surge grabbed attention. U.S. crude jumped 4.7% to close at $74.56 a barrel. Brent finished at $81.40. That’s according to Reuters, and it’s exactly the sort of swing that can mess with rate bets and the way investors crunch numbers for large tech. 2
AI grabbed some attention, too. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told reporters the company is “working” with the U.S. Department of Defense to revise their deal, aiming to “make our principles very clear.” That revision includes wording to address restrictions on use by intelligence agencies. 3
The day before, three U.S. cabinet agencies halted their use of Anthropic’s products. The State Department has already swapped out the Anthropic model powering its StateChat bot, opting for OpenAI instead. “For now, StateChat will use GPT4.1 from OpenAI,” according to a memo reviewed by Reuters. 4
Microsoft, a key OpenAI investor, is watching government adoption closely — it’s about more than product showcases. Securing contracts, winning compute business, and being the chosen model when agencies set their standards, that’s where it counts. Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com, which back Anthropic, are also in the hunt, vying with Microsoft for cloud infrastructure deals.
Beneath the surface, there’s a simmering discussion about just how quickly spending is ramping up. On Microsoft’s Jan. 28 earnings call, Morgan Stanley’s Keith Weiss pressed executives, flagging investor jitters: “CapEx is growing faster than we expected,” he said, pushing for more clarity on the “ROI” for that expansion. (Capex — capital expenditures — covers investments like data centers.) 5
Still, the risk cuts both ways. Should oil hang up at these levels and bets on rate cuts fade, pricey stocks—even the mega-cap names flush with cash—could see valuations shrink rapidly. On top of that, stricter rules on military AI might stall deployments, trim project sizes, or stir up fresh debates over what counts as “allowed” use in the sector.
Microsoft is on deck to speak at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference this Wednesday, March 4, at 9:15 a.m. PT, its investor site shows. Wall Street will be tuning in for any hints on AI and cloud demand. 6
Looking past the company calendars, Friday could get noisy: the U.S. Employment Situation report for February drops March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET, a data point known for jolting Treasury yields and tech valuations without much warning. 7
