New York, February 18, 2026, 10:27 (EST) — Regular session
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) climbed 0.8% to $399.97 during Wednesday’s morning session, after briefly reaching $400.78. The company’s market capitalization hovered close to $3.6 trillion.
The stock tracked the wider tech sector, with Wall Street looking to recover from a stretch of losses driven by doubts about the returns on major AI investments. “The market is more at a crossroads and waiting for some sort of a bullish or bearish catalyst,” said Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist. (Reuters)
Rates factor into the ongoing search for a new catalyst. Investors will comb through the U.S. Federal Reserve’s January 16-17 meeting minutes, set for release at 2 p.m. EST, hoping for any sign of what could prompt a return to rate cuts. Officials left the policy rate unchanged, sticking with that 3.5% to 3.75% band. “The upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to employment have probably both diminished a bit,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after that meeting. (Reuters)
Microsoft didn’t wait around—its AI ambitions landed in headlines early. The tech giant’s target: $50 billion set aside for AI expansion in developing and emerging markets, the “Global South,” by decade’s end, according to remarks at an AI summit in New Delhi. Last year? Microsoft flagged $17.5 billion in AI investments announced in India. (Reuters)
Microsoft’s promise comes as shareholders grow more attuned to cost pressures. The tech giant’s latest fiscal Q2 numbers, out in late January, showed capital expenditures soaring to $37.5 billion for the quarter ending December. CFO Amy Hood flagged rising memory-chip prices as a looming drag on cloud margins. “One big obvious issue is that revenues are up 17% and the cost of revenues are up 19%,” said Eric Clark, portfolio manager at the LOGO ETF, which counts Microsoft among its holdings. (Reuters)
A regulatory filing on Tuesday revealed a modest insider sale: Amy Coleman, who serves as Microsoft’s executive vice president and chief human resources officer, sold 85.103 shares at $401.32 apiece, per a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. (Form 4 documents insider trading activity when company officials buy or sell shares.) (Securities and Exchange Commission)
Aside from parsing the Fed minutes, traders already have their eyes on the upcoming inflation data. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule, the Personal Income and Outlays report—featuring the Fed’s go-to inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—lands February 20 at 8:30 a.m. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
There’s a hitch with the upside scenario. When AI spending outpaces the revenue gains it’s meant to deliver, investor patience wears thin—particularly in the megacaps, where margins and cash flow aren’t up for debate.
Immediate focus shifts to the Fed minutes dropping Wednesday, followed by Friday’s PCE inflation numbers. In the wings, Microsoft still trades as a test case for whether big AI bets can drive lasting cloud gains without slicing too deeply into margins.
