New York, February 17, 2026, 12:42 (EST) — Regular session
Mortgage rates hovered near 6% on Tuesday, while another drop in U.S. builder confidence sharpened worries over affordability. Shares of homebuilders and mortgage lenders slid for most of the session.
Here’s the crux: even modest shifts in mortgage rates have the power to swing monthly payments, making or breaking the deal for buyers on the edge. The same goes for refinancing—it either gets a shot in the arm or remains sidelined, all hinging on those rate tweaks.
That’s part of the reason traders watch bonds so closely. Mortgage rates typically move with yields on mortgage-backed securities — these are bonds made up of home loan pools — as well as the 10-year Treasury, the go-to benchmark for borrowing rates.
Tuesday’s read from Mortgage News Daily showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.04%, and the 15-year mortgage coming in at 5.61%. On the dashboard, the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.05% as prices for key mortgage-backed securities edged down during the session. (Mortgagenewsdaily)
Bankrate’s latest numbers put the 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.16%, about 12 basis points lower than last week’s level. The 15-year slipped to 5.50%. James Sahnger at C2 Financial pointed to previous payroll data revisions, noting, “it won’t be a surprise when this one is, too,” and cast doubt on how much weight investors give initial figures. According to Mortgage Bankers Association chief Bob Broeksmit, mortgage applications barely budged last week, with more borrowers opting for FHA loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. (Bankrate)
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF dropped around 1.6%. D.R. Horton lost nearly 1.3%, Lennar gave up about 1.6%. Rocket Companies slid roughly 3.2%. UWM Holdings was flat. S&P 500 ETF edged just lower.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index slipped to 36 in February, down a point and marking its 22nd consecutive month under the 50 threshold. NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes cited “affordability challenges” among buyers, while Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted that receding inflation could pave the way for lower mortgage and builder loan rates. The association also pointed to pricier materials due to broad U.S. tariffs, plus ongoing labor tightening as immigration enforcement ramps up. (Reuters)
After the long weekend, trading saw some turbulence, with investors skittish over the latest tech selloff driven by persistent AI disruption fears. Financials held up better than most sectors, keeping losses in check. (Reuters)
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said “several more” rate cuts remain possible this year, provided inflation keeps heading down toward the Fed’s 2% goal. The central bank left its policy rate untouched at 3.5% to 3.75% back in January and, according to Reuters, looks set to hold it there again in March. (Reuters)
Regulation is drawing fresh attention in the mortgage market. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman pointed out that two proposed capital tweaks “would increase bank incentives to engage in mortgage origination and servicing,” saying the move might pull mortgage business back to banks after years of outflow. (Federal Reserve)
The risks here haven’t changed: A hotter-than-expected inflation print or a sharp move up in Treasury yields, and mortgage rates could swiftly climb. Lenders also tend to pad the spread over Treasuries whenever volatility kicks up.
Next up: data, and whatever signals the Fed sends. Watch for the minutes from the Fed’s Jan. 27-28 meeting, expected out Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. The government’s fresh read on residential construction—housing starts and building permits—lands Feb. 18 at 8:30 a.m. Then on Feb. 20, we’ll get the Fed’s go-to PCE inflation gauge. (Federal Reserve)
