Sydney, March 4, 2026, 17:07 (AEDT) — After-hours
National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX) dropped 2.0% to finish at A$46.68 on Wednesday, with investors pulling back from Australian bank shares in a risk-off climate. ANZ fell hardest, down 3.7%, while Westpac eased 1.6% and Commonwealth Bank shed 1.2%. 1
Macro moves have taken the wheel for NAB and its rivals. Traders aren’t as convinced as they were that rates have nowhere to go but down—now an oil-fueled inflation scare is being layered on top. The ASX 200 dropped 1.9%, the sharpest slide since early February, after oil prices jumped and fresh anxiety over a prolonged Middle East conflict threatened to push inflation higher for an extended stretch. 2
This week, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said she was aiming to “dissuade” markets from locking in expectations on the rate outlook, cautioning that inflation could pick up if supply disruptions from the Middle East drag on. After her comments, traders saw around a 30% chance of a quarter-point rate hike at the March 17 meeting, and are now pricing in a full move by May. Three-year bond yields picked up 13 basis points to 4.313%—with 100 basis points equaling one percentage point. 3
Rate expectations tightened once again on Wednesday, as fresh data showed the economy expanded 0.8% in the December quarter and 2.6% over the past year—beating forecasts for both. “Investment in data centres and aircraft was maintained at high levels,” said Grace Kim, head of National Accounts at ABS. For Deloitte Access Economics, partner Stephen Smith flagged the “key question for 2026” as how sharply growth decelerates, and whether an oil-price shock throws off the RBA’s policy calculations. 4
Banks tend to favor rising rates up to a limit—they get a boost to lending margins. On the flip side, though, steeper funding costs, weaker credit appetite, and added borrower stress all start to bite if rates remain high.
No new price-moving headlines came out of NAB on Wednesday. Up next for the bank: half-year results land on May 4, and shares go ex-dividend on May 7, according to its financial calendar. 5
NAB bulls have something to watch: if the macro backdrop sours, trouble could pile up fast. Oil sticks higher, the RBA reacts early—suddenly, bank stocks are staring down a double squeeze. Valuations get hit by rising discount rates, and nerves fray over arrears and potential write-offs.
The RBA’s March 17 decision is now front and center for bank stocks, becoming the main talking point as the next session approaches and traders look further out over the coming weeks.
