Sydney, Feb 26, 2026, 17:56 AEDT — Market closed
- NAB shares ended slightly lower after touching a new 52-week high.
- A sticky inflation read has markets leaning toward another RBA hike later this year.
- Regulators flagged record civil penalties, keeping bank conduct risk on screens.
National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX:NAB) shares hit a fresh 52-week high on Thursday but finished slightly lower, as investors weighed the interest-rate outlook and renewed attention on financial sector enforcement. NAB closed down 6 Australian cents, or 0.12%, at A$49.04, after trading up to A$49.345. Other major lenders were mixed, with Commonwealth Bank down 0.79% and Westpac off 0.54%, while ANZ rose 0.76%. (Investing)
The move was small, but the timing is awkward for the banks. NAB is sitting at the top end of its range just as markets reprice the chance of tighter policy, and the sector has little patience left for surprises.
Inflation is the immediate backdrop. Data released on Wednesday showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the year to January, unchanged from December, while trimmed mean inflation — a core gauge that strips out big price swings — lifted to 3.4% from 3.3%. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
Reuters reported investors lifted the implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia hike in May to about 80% after the inflation report. Deloitte Access Economics partner Stephen Smith said the May meeting would be “the next live” one after March, with policymakers able to judge the economy alongside March-quarter inflation, while EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy said the central bank had “its work cut out” to get inflation back inside target. (Reuters)
Regulatory risk also resurfaced. The corporate watchdog said it secured a record A$349.8 million in court-ordered civil penalties in the second half of 2025 in cases involving large firms including ANZ and NAB. “ASIC has secured record penalties in response to serious misconduct,” Chair Joe Longo said, with the release noting NAB and a unit were ordered to pay A$15.5 million over hardship failures. (ASIC)
NAB has also been shuffling senior roles. In an ASX announcement this week, the bank said long-standing executive Shaun Dooley plans to retire by the end of 2026, and incoming finance chief Inder Singh is due to start on March 2, after which Dooley will revert to chief risk officer. Chief Executive Andrew Irvine said Dooley had been “an outstanding contributor” to the bank.
The broader market tone stayed constructive. Australia’s ASX 200 rose about 0.5% on Thursday, tracking a positive lead from global equities after Nvidia’s results helped underpin risk appetite. (AP News)
Still, NAB’s fade into the close suggested a bit of profit-taking. Near-record prices sharpen the sensitivity to bond yields and the next rate signal, even if the day-to-day moves look dull.
The risk case is straightforward: a faster climb in borrowing costs can cool credit demand and lift bad debts, while a sudden swing the other way — softer inflation, easing rate expectations — can take some heat out of bank shares that have already rerated.
Next up, investors will keep one eye on the May rate call and another on NAB’s own calendar. The bank is scheduled to report half-year results on May 4, with its interim dividend ex-date set for May 7. (NAB)
