Sydney, Feb 26, 2026, 17:56 AEDT — Market finished the session
- NAB hit a fresh 52-week high before shares slipped to close a bit lower.
- Stubborn inflation numbers have traders tilting toward the RBA delivering another rate hike before year-end.
- Record civil penalties flagged by regulators have kept bank conduct risk in focus.
National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX:NAB) touched another 52-week high on Thursday before slipping back to end the session down 6 Australian cents at A$49.04, a dip of 0.12%. Shares earlier reached A$49.345 as investors parsed the latest signals on interest rates and a fresh wave of scrutiny on the financial sector. Among the other big banks: Commonwealth Bank shed 0.79%, Westpac lost 0.54%, and ANZ managed a gain of 0.76%.
It’s a minor shift, yet the timing couldn’t be trickier for the banks. NAB finds itself pushing the upper boundary of its range precisely as markets begin to factor in the risk of tighter policy. Patience for unexpected moves is running thin across the sector.
Inflation remains front and center. Figures out Wednesday revealed the consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.8% in the year through January, holding steady from December’s reading. As for trimmed mean inflation, the measure that excludes the most volatile moves, that ticked up a notch to 3.4% from 3.3%.
After the inflation data hit, Reuters said investors bumped up the odds of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in May to about 80%. Deloitte Access Economics partner Stephen Smith called May “the next live” meeting after March, pointing out that policymakers would be weighing the economy along with March-quarter inflation figures. EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy added that the central bank “has its work cut out” getting inflation back within target. Reuters
Regulatory pressure made a comeback. The corporate watchdog announced it locked in a record A$349.8 million in court-ordered civil penalties during the back half of 2025, hitting big names like ANZ and NAB. “ASIC has secured record penalties in response to serious misconduct,” Chair Joe Longo said. The release highlighted that NAB and one of its units were hit with a A$15.5 million penalty tied to hardship violations. ASIC
NAB is making some big changes at the top. According to an ASX statement this week, veteran executive Shaun Dooley will retire by the end of 2026. Inder Singh, who’s taking over as finance chief, steps in on March 2; after that, Dooley will return to his previous post as chief risk officer. CEO Andrew Irvine called Dooley “an outstanding contributor” for the bank.
Sentiment across the wider market held up. Australia’s ASX 200 added roughly 0.5% Thursday, lifted by upbeat global equities as Nvidia’s results gave risk appetite another boost.
Still, NAB eased back at the finish, hinting at some profit-taking. With prices hovering just below records, traders are acutely watching bond yields and waiting for the next rate cue, even if daily action seems subdued.
Here’s the risk: higher borrowing costs tend to slow credit demand and push up bad loans. On the flip side, if inflation softens and rate bets ease, bank shares that have already rerated could lose some steam.
Attention shifts to the May rate decision, but NAB’s timeline isn’t far from mind either. The bank drops half-year numbers on May 4, and anyone eyeing the interim dividend will note the ex-date lands just three days later, on May 7.
