Melbourne, April 1, 2026, 08:36 AEDT
National Australia Bank Limited said on Wednesday it had contacted almost 200,000 business customers since early March to gauge the hit from fuel-price volatility, focusing on agriculture, transport, manufacturing, construction and regional supply chains. The bank said most of those customers were managing conditions rather than seeking hardship help. 1
The outreach lands as Australia tries to blunt a fuel shock tied to the Iran war. Canberra said this week it would halve fuel excise and suspend the heavy road-user charge, a levy on trucks, for three months after Brent crude surged 59% in March and average Australian diesel topped A$3 a litre last week. 2
The timing matters for NAB because it is Australia’s top business lender and because the Reserve Bank of Australia signalled on Tuesday that the path for rates was unusually hard to call. The central bank lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.1% in March, and markets now see a 60% chance of another increase in May. 3
Pressure is already showing up in households. NAB’s Consumer Stress Index, its gauge of cost-of-living strain, rose to 59.1 in the March quarter, the highest since 2014, while 57% of Australians said they had switched at least one provider over the past year as prices climbed. 4
“Households are clearly under strain, but what’s striking is how proactive people are being,” Dean Pearson, NAB’s head of behavioural and industry economics, said. He said families were trading down and shopping around rather than simply stopping spending, while plans to buy major household items, renovate homes and take holidays had weakened. 4
On the business side, Olivia Brosca, NAB’s business care executive, said fewer than 2% of recent calls to the bank’s business care team had centred on fuel pressures. Still, she warned that smaller firms without storage capacity or cash buffers were more exposed: “The real pressure is on smaller businesses who haven’t been able to build that buffer.” 1
Jacob Mahony, chief executive of Victorian logistics company Mahonys Transport, said diesel remained a major cost and that smaller freight operators and agricultural supply chains were under rising pressure. “Diesel is essential to keeping trucks moving and supply chains functioning,” he said. 1
NAB had already passed on the RBA’s March move to borrowers, lifting variable home-loan rates by 25 basis points from March 27. Commonwealth Bank and ANZ made the same change from March 27, while Westpac’s increase took effect on March 31, making the pressure broad across Australia’s big four lenders. 5
Ana Marinkovic, NAB’s personal banking chief, said another rate increase would be “challenging for many Australians” alongside wider cost-of-living pressure. CBA’s Angus Sullivan, Westpac’s Carolyn McCann and ANZ’s Pedro Rodeia each urged customers to seek support early if repayments became harder to manage. 5
But the picture could turn faster. RBA minutes showed policymakers thought inflation could reach about 5% in the June quarter if oil held around $100 a barrel, while a Reuters poll on Tuesday showed analysts had lifted their 2026 Brent forecast by 30% from February. That leaves smaller operators exposed if fuel stays high and borrowing costs rise again. 6
NAB reported first-quarter cash earnings of A$2.02 billion in February, up 16% from a year earlier, with business banking volumes rising 7%. It enters the new quarter with most business customers still coping, but with household strain and fuel costs both moving higher. 3
